Flash Flood in North Carolina, July 26 to 27, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF JET/UPPER TROF APPROACHING AREA
BRINGING UVV AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE DECREASING
CONVECTION IN THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL UPDATE MAINLY TO CLEAN UP
WORDING.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CWA CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AHEAD OF MAJOR
IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
FAIRLY GOOD UPSLOPE AHEAD OF FRONT INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OVER THE AREA.  AS FRONT APPROACHES POPS CONTINUE TO RISE.  PRECIP
WATER NEARING TWO INCHES COMBINED WITH LOW WINDS COULD PRODUCE
FLOODING IN HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE MTNS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE SLOWS AND WEAKENS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS.  SO BACK SIDE OF CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS ON PREVIOUS RUNS.  MODELS
CONSISTENTLY KEEP PRECIP IN EASTERN PARTS OF CWA AND GFS KEEPS ENTIRE
AREA WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SINCE THE ODDS OF THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF US KEEP GETTING LOWER...I PUT LOW POP PRECIP IN THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS FOR WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES INTO THE REGION...AND GIVEN AN ASSIST
FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
REGION. MOST TAF SITES GET A TEMPO GROUP FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO THE
PREDAWN AT CLT. DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WERE ADVERTISED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT CLT.
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WAS ADVERTISED IN
TEMPO GROUPS FOR AVL...AND...GSP AND GMU IN CONTINUED WEAK UPGLIDE
REGIME AND WITH OUR FORECAST AREA DIRECTLY IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...ENHANCING UPPER DIVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AS THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
BEGINS...WITH CONVECTION DEGRADED TO TEMPOS LATE IN THE MORNING
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING EASTERN TROF AND APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE 18Z
TO 24Z TIME FRAME TUESDAY.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 THROUGH
     TUESDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-270940-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
541 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE FARTHER TO
THE EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A
GREENWOOD TO CHARLOTTE LINE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1143 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WALNUT                  35.85N 82.74W
07/26/2004                   MADISON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WALNUT CREEK IS OVER BANKFULL WITH WATER COVERING
            PORTIONS OF WALNUT CREEK ROAD. MUD SLIDE AFFECTING U.S.
            ROUTE 25/70 NEAR BRUSH CREEK. LEVELS OF SEVERAL AREA
            CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RISING.

&&

NED