Sleet in North Carolina, February 2 to 3, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
830 PM EST MON FEB 02 2004

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE SEEN SOME PRESSURE FALLS SINCE THIS AFTERNOON AND A GRADUAL
DECREASE OF THE SUB 32F WETBULB FIELD...BUT AS OF 01Z...IT STILL
DENOTES THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA PRETTY WELL AND IS ABOUT 2-3 DEG
F COLDER THAN WHAT THE 18Z ETA PROGGED. WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING
FOR A WHILE...TEMPS HAVE PRETTY MUCH SETTLED IN AND WOULD EXPECT
LTL MOVEMENT EXCEPT POSSIBLY UPWARD A TAD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WV IMAGERY INDICATES LEADING EDGE OF DRYING ALOFT BACK ACRS AL/GA
...BUT 88D LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF CATEGORICAL CVRG OF WCB PCPN
ALREADY INTO WESTERN EDGE OF CWFA. BUT WITH NEG TILTED TROUGH STILL
UPSTREAM...LOOKS LIKE RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO FILL BACK IN. SO WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH CAT POPS EVEN FOR WESTERN SECTIONS BUT
OBVIOUSLY LESS ADDITIONAL QPF.

AS AN INTERESTING SIDEBAR...STG UVVS AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
HAVE RESULTED IN SOME THUNDER WITHIN CURRENT PCPN AREA...WITH AN
EARTH SHATTERING THUNDER CLAP NOTED HERE AT GSP WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.

CURRENT THUNDER LENDS CREDENCE TO THE ATMOSPHERE COOLING SOME THIS
EVENING AND ACRS NW NC...AN EROSION OF THE WARM NOSE PROBABLY WILL
OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF OBSERVED 00Z GSO PARTIAL THICKNESS...MODEL
THICKNESS AND FCST SNDGS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS & FTHLS SHOW A
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FROZEN PCPN...BUT NOT CONCLUSIVELY COLD
ENOUGH...I.E. P-TYPE DETERMINATION OFF NOMOGRAMS AND BUFKIT
SNDGS...TO SAY THAT IT IS DEFINITE BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THROW A CHANCE
MIXED IN WITH PREDOMINATE FZRA.

ALL IN ALL...CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. WITH
BACK EDGE OF HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY NOW JUST EAST OF ADVISORY AREA IN
MOUNTAINS...FEEL AREAS WEST OF ASHEVILLE DO NOT NEED TO BE UPGRADED.

GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING LATE EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE NC FTHLS
AND N MTNS...IN HEART OF WARNING...WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES POISED
TO ENTER THIS AREA SHORTLY.

LOOKS LIKE ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA HAS WETBULBED TO RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING AND WITH WEDGE MAINTENANCE DIMINISHING...LOOKS LIKE
SOME ADVISORY ICE STILL ON TRACK. EAST OF THE WARNING AREAS IN
NC...DWPTS HAVE BEEN RISING...BUT TEMPS STILL MILD. 01Z WETBULBS
CURRENTLY IN MID 30S...AND NOT CONFIDENT THAT ONCE PCPN BEGINS
IN EARNEST OVER THIS AREA THAT WELL SEE MUCH ICING GIVEN WEAKENING
WEDGE...BUT PROBABLY BEST TO HANG ONTO ADVISORY WITH MAIN THREAT
POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO JUST SOME LIGHT ICING ON ELEVATED SFCS.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EXCEPT ELBERT COUNTY.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FOOTHILLS... NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS... PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE.
&&

55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EST MON FEB 2 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-021340-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
653 AM EST MON FEB 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. PLEASE SEE THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES / CAEWSWGSP / FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NED