Flood in North Carolina, December 10, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 AM EST FRI DEC 10 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE INTO OH VALLEY TODAY...WITH A LARGE
CHANNELLED VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND ITS BASE AND UP I-85 TODAY.
SURFACE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR E BORDER OF AREA BY MORNING...TAKING MOST CONVECTION WITH IT.
MODEL CAPES STILL RATHER HIGH FAR E SECTION...AND LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR BEGINNING OF PACKAGE. TORNADO WATCH TO
EXPIRE AT 300...COINCIDENT WITH ISSUANCE OF ZONES. WILL LEAVE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM...AS MOIST AIR MASS LOSES MIXING
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE NEAR LIKELY POPS NC MTS...AND EVEN CARRIES CHANCE
POPS INTO PIEDMONT. FOR NOW IWLL CARRY HIGH CHANCE NC MTS...TAPERING
TO SLIGHT CHANCE PIEDMONT. AS NW FLOW INCREASES...EXPECT MORE
GRADIENT IN POPS...WITH MTS HIGHER AND LEE LOWER. PARTIAL THICKNESS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SNOW IN MTS TONIGHT ABOVE 4000
FEET...AND A MIX FROM 3000 TO 4000 FT. MOISTURE IN MTS TO DECREASE
SAT WHILE THICKNESS CONTINUES TO FALL. BY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVEL DROPS
TO 3000 FEET...BUT LAPSE RATE SO STEEP THAT THREE SHOULD BE FAST
TRANSITION TO LIQUID BLE THAT. SMALL POPS CONFINED TO TN LINE THIS
EVENING...THEN N NC MTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY SUNRISE MONDAY EXPECT
AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND MAYBE 2 INCHES ABOVE
4000 FEET. WILL LEAVE TO DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE FURTHER FOR ADVISORY.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MOUNTAINS SUN EVENING...BRINGING MOISTURE AND
NW FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. PARTRIAL THICKNESS MARGINAL...BUT WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR TN LINE.

RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN
DELAYED COLD ADVECTION. LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURE SAT NIGHT TOWARD
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SUPPORTED TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH OVERALL COOLING TREND UNER
LOWERING HEIGHTS...DESPITE NW FLOW/DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN LEE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT ANOTHER EASTERN LW TROUGH BY
MID WEEK...ALLOWING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR TO SURGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD SOMEWHAT MITIGATE THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TENN BORDER...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...
A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO INVADE FROM THE
SOUTH AND REMAINING COOL POOL HOLDS ON ACROSS NRN UPSTATE SC AND THE
FOOTHILLS OF NC OVERNIGHT. GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE AT
KCLT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH 09Z...AFTER WHICH MOST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A VCSH ACROSS
TAF SITES E OF MTNS TIL AFTER SUNRISE OWING TO CONTINUATION OF UPPER
FORCING UNTIL JET AXIS IS WELL TO THE EAST. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE
BRIEFLY IN WAKE OF MAIN CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD DROP BACK TO IFR FOR
REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW ON FRIDAY. MAV
GUIDANCE SHOWS RAPID RISE IN VIS/CIG IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
DAY...AS SW FLOW AT 850MB BRINGS IN COLD ADVECTION. THINK THAT
SHOULD BREAK UP IFR CEILING AND DESTROY REMAINING SURFACE COOL
POOL...LEAVING MVFR CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT WILL LIMIT TAFS TO VCSH FOR NOW.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ034-035-037-038-054>057-
     066>072-082 UNTIL 9 AM EST.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ008-009-014 UNTIL 9 AM EST.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EST THU DEC 9 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-101100-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
310 PM EST THU DEC 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SEEN AS WELL. HEAVY RAIN
EARLIER TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH WATER CONDITIONS IN A
FEW SPOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.  AS COLD AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY.  THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS THE MOISTURE FEED DECREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.
THE LAST LOCATIONS TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE TENNESSEE
BORDER LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL...SEE CAESPSGSP.

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.

NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.