Flash Flood and Flood in New York, August 30 to 31, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
314 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTIVE TEMP OFF
THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS 84.  STARTED TO SEE SOME CONVECTION POP ACROSS
WESTERN ALBANY COUNTY AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DID NOT HOLD
TOGETHER ALL THAT MUCH. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...MODELS ARE ON THE HIGH
SIDE WITH CAPE VALUES. MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SHOWING GOOD MOISTURE FEED
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KENX
PICTURE SHOWING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST DBZ AREAS LOOK TO BE OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK.
AT 18Z TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.  850 AND 500 JET NOT REALLY
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ON THE ETA OR GFS.  THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE MORE
OF A HYDRO PROBLEM TONIGHT.  WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY ZONES GETTING
THE BULK OF THE RAIN YESTERDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CREATE
FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.  WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH UP THROUGH 6AM TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.

TUESDAY...THINGS START TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE
FRONT IS THROUGH THE AREA.  WILL START OFF THE DAY WITH SOME CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES.  TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GASTON TAKES AN EASTWARD PATH TUESDAY MORNING...SO WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION KEEP THE
WEATHER QUIET FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BE TWO WEEKS IN
A ROW WHERE THERE WAS A SEMI DRY STRETCH THAT LASTED MORE THAN 3
DAYS.  BY SUNDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK
TO STALL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.  THE BIG PROBLEM OF THE EXTENDED
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE HURRICANE FRANCES.  GFS A LITTLE QUICKER
WITH THE TRACK OF FRANCES.  INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WILL
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE ROUTE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO THE LIFR/IFR.  BY 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO BUILD IN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084 THROUGH 6AM TUESDAY MORNING.  FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF HERKIMER AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES YESTERDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. WITH ALL THE RAIN THAT THE ABOVE ZONES RECEIVED
YESTERDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO HAVE FLOODING. GFS A BIT ON THE
HEAVY SIDE WITH THE QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES.  GASTON SHOULD TAKE
MORE OF A SOUTH AND EASTERLY TRACK...SO THE MOISTURE FEED SHOULD NOT
BE THAT GREAT.  BOTTOM LINE WITH LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TAKING A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION...THE WHOLE CWA WILL HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.  THINGS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.  WITH
THIS STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...IT WILL ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO
RECEDE A BIT BEFORE WE DEAL WITH FRANCES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
SPECIFICALLY THE ZONES INCLUDED ARE NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
VT...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
535 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-311100-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FROM WASHINGTON
COUNTY WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT IN THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE VOICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND MORE DETAIL...VISIT US ON THE
WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV. FROM THERE YOU CAN CLICK ON THE AREA
YOU ARE INTERESTED IN...AND VISIT THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE IN THAT
AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

NYZ039-082-302115-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN FULTON COUNTY...

AT 436 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH....
FREQUENT LIGHTNING....AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GLOVERSVILLE...OR ABOUT OVER GLOVERSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GLOVERSVILLE BY 445 PM EDT
BROADALBIN BY 455 PM EDT
MAYFIELD BY 505 PM EDT
CRANBERRY CREEK AND 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTHVILLE BY 515 PM EDT