A cold front crossing New York State brought showers and thunderstorms to the region. Thunderstorm winds downed trees and limbs in Victory, Cayuga county, and Granby Center, Oswego county.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
A cold front crossing New York State brought showers and thunderstorms to the region. Thunderstorm winds downed trees and limbs in Victory, Cayuga county, and Granby Center, Oswego county. In Humphrey, Cattaraugus county, the thunderstorm winds downed trees and utility lines. In Pultneyville, Wayne county, lightning struck and barn and ignited a fire.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 10, 2:40 PM EST, 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 340 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... AS EXPECTED...WITH DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IS FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WITH OTHER MORE ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF KBUF OFF OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. AS THE MAIN THETA-E RIDGE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES/NORTH COUNTRY...THEN SLOWLY WANE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AREA UNTIL 8 PM...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 35-45 KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS IN THE 11-11.5 KFT RANGE. ONCE THINGS QUIET DOWN LATER TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL WED AFTERNOON...WHEN THE FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES RESULTS IN A MODEST AMOUNT OF LIFT...AS WELL MODERATE INSTABILITY (CAPES AOA 500 J/KG) ACROSS AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH TDS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AROUND TO WARRANT CHC POPS FOR -SHRA/-TSRA FROM KROC WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TREKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...BOTH THE ETA/GFS DRY SLOT THE AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISM TO SPEAK OF. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL ACCORDING TO EVEN THE OVERLY ROBUST ETA BUFKIT PROFILES...WILL OPT TO CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT 20 POP IN THE GRIDS/DRY FORECAST IN THE ZONES. THEN FOR THU NT AND FRIDAY...BOTH THE ETA/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE...AS WELL AS THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE...UP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...WITH THE ETA SLOWER/STRONGER/A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS OUT AT DAY 3...ESPECIALLY WHEN TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THERES A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMING INTO PLAY...WILL OPT AT THIS TIME TO FOLLOW THE FASTER/WEAKER/MORE EASTERLY GFS...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OFFICIAL TPC/NHC FORECAST. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY BRING CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THU NT AND FRIDAY AM...DIMINISHING THEM FRI AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS...OWING TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLS...AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NEXT CHC OF PCPN DOESNT LOOK TO BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS (AND POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY?) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH DUE TO CHANGES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS..WILL NOT GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. && .AVIATION... VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL PREVAIL, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BRIEFLY TO MVFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED AT TIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF ROCHESTER. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...APB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 438 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-110837- ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON- MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO- SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING- 438 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SET OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. THE THREAT WOULD BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED. SFM
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 78 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:19 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, August 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5419443, 5418973, 5418971, 5418972.