Tornadoes and Hail in Colorado, August 10, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
315 AM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS STRATUS
SLOWLY FILLING IN BEHIND LAST EVENINGS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WILL HELP ANCHOR LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING....SLOWING DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH JET MAX MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT TO MENTION
COOLING ALOFT.  THIS SHOULD HELP WEAKEN CAP AND NEGATE EFFECTS OF
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  UNTIL THEN...THE FORCING WILL PROVIDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER THIS
MORNING.  SATELLITE AND RADARS BEGINNING TO SHOW PRECIP MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING
AND COOLING ALOFT TO BREAK THE CAP.  ITS NOT A SURE THING BY ANY
MEANS...JUST LIKE YESTERDAYS OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WITH COOLER TEMPS
NORTH OF THE DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE PREVENTING A SEVERE OUTBREAK
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS.  FOR THIS REASON WILL USE CHANCE
WORDING IN FORECAST SINCE THE SAME SCENARIO MAY UNFOLD TODAY.  AT
THIS TIME...APPEARS DOUGLAS...ELBERT...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WILL
HAVE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SINCE THATS WHERE THE THETA-E
AXIS SHOULD BE LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SURGE OF COOLER AIR
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THREAT OF SEVERE FARTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST...SO ATTEMPTED TO PAINT FORECAST APPROPRIATELY.

IF WE DO GET THINGS GOING...CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG WITH 78/55 T/TD AND
0-6KM SHEAR INCREDIBLY STRONG NEAR 30M/S.  STORMS WOULD HAVE VERY
STRONG MESOCYCLONES AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL LIKE WE
SAW YESTERDAY...HAD TWO REPORTS OF SOFTBALLS.  WILL ALSO MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES GIVEN GOOD LOW LEVEL STORM INFLOW AND
HELICITIES ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  A DEGREE OR TWO
COULD MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE TODAY...SO STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SEE LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE MUCH FROM GOING
FORECAST.  CONTINUATION OF COOL SURGES THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE MOSTLY IN CLOUDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE
THE COOLEST DAY AND WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE 60S.
DESPITE THE COOL TEMPERATURES...WE STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AS 700-500 MB LAYER TEMPS COOL CONSIDERABLY.  AIRMASS
EXPECTED TO MODIFY AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE LOOSES ITS GRIP...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.  A SURGE
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS TO
SPREAD BACK ACROSS COLORADO FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE BOOSTED YET AGAIN IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.BOU...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1054 AM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

COZ030>051-111200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1054 AM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO
SPARK STORM ACTIVITY.  ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE.  ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL
...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM THE FRONT RANGE
METRO AREAS AND I-25 CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO FORT MORGAN AND AKRON AND
SOUTH THROUGH LIMON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AFTER 2 PM TODAY.

COOPER/GIMMESTAD