Tornadoes and Hail in Missouri, October 29, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
200 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LATEST MOISTURE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN WRN
SD WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO EXTREME SERN CO. AT
THE SURFACE...SFC LOW WAS CENTERED IN NERN SD WITH A DRY LINE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO EXTREME ERN NEB AND ERN KS. CU FIELD HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE HAS PRECLUDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOIST AXIS APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WCENTRAL MISSOURI WITH DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY
LINE.

THE COLD FRONT IN WRN KS WILL QUICKLY RACE EAST AND MERGE WITH THE
DRY LINE THIS EVENING. PREFER MESOETA DEPICTION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FOR THIS EVENING. MESOETA...AND MORE SO THE
LATEST 18Z RUC...SUGGESTS THAT THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK
ALONG THE DRY LINE/CDFRONT WITH CAPES RANGING FROM 500-1200 J/KG.
STRONG SFC-6KM WILL BE PRESENT...GREATER THAN 60 KNOTS...HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE A NEARLY STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPH IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CHANCE OF SEVERE IS PRESENT ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE STRONG SFC-6KM SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY
IMPEDE STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SUCH MARGINAL CAPE.
NEVERTHELESS...THE GREATEST THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WITH SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ALONG THE
KS/MO BDR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERALL...BELIEVE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...IN IOWA AND MINNESOTA...IN FAVORABLE AREA
OF STG 110 H3 JET.

ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR DRIVING EAST WITH THE AID OF BRISK WEST WINDS.
MESOETA GRIDS SUGGEST THAT SC WILL WRAP CYCLONICALLY SWD ON
SATURDAY. GRIDS ALSO SUGGEST BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

DB

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW INCREASING SPREAD
STARTING MONDAY WITH THEIR PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
CONSISTENT TREND HOWEVER...IS FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO CATCH
UP AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN TROUGH...HANGING THIS ELONGATED
FEATURE BACK OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TUESDAY.
HAVE EXTENDED LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST SECTION AFTER THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE WEAK UPPER SHEAR ZONE. THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE MID-WEEK AND ALLOW
THE CLOUD COVER TO SCOUR OUT BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT REACHES
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR AND EVEN BELOW NORMAL AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DRAGS COOLER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.

STOFLET

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

430 AM...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TODAY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. PROFILER
NETWORK IS SHOWING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH 850MB WINDS OF 50KTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS
IS PUSHING 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THIS FORECAST
AREA TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WELL WITH 850MB TEMPS AT AROUND 16C.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR A CAP OCCURS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY FOLLOWING ETA INSTABILITY FIELDS...SHOWING
LI/S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE...CAPE INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AND
STRONG SPEED SHEAR...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EXTREME WESTERN
MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A
LINE AS THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SEVERE PARAMETERS...MAY SEE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE.

ACTUALLY THE STRONG 50KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 850MB AND TIGHT
SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE REALLY GUSTY WINDS TODAY. AREA MAY
NEED A WIND ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF NOW THOUGH...THINKING WE MAY SEE
ENOUGH CLOUDINESS TO NOT ALLOW FULL MIXING.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVING MAINLY SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MISSOURI A SHOT AT SOME OVERRUNNING TYPE RAIN BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

NRR

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1247 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-301100-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS...AND SPREAD EAST TO A
MARYVILLE...KANSAS CITY TO MOUND CITY KANSAS LINE BY 7 PM. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO A KIRKSVILLE TO MOBERLY TO SEDALIA LINE BY
10 PM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE OUTLOOK AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
510 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

KSZ057-060-MOZ005>008-014>017-021>025-029>033-037>040-043>046-053-
054-300300-
ADAIR MO-BATES MO-CALDWELL MO-CARROLL MO-CASS MO-CHARITON MO-CLAY MO-
CLINTON MO-COOPER MO-DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-HARRISON MO-HENRY MO-
HOWARD MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-LINN MO-LINN KS-
LIVINGSTON MO-MACON MO-MERCER MO-MIAMI KS-PETTIS MO-PUTNAM MO-
RANDOLPH MO-RAY MO-SALINE MO-SCHUYLER MO-SULLIVAN MO-
510 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 871...IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING. THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

ADAIR...BATES...CALDWELL...CARROLL...CASS...CHARITON...CLAY...
CLINTON...COOPER...DAVIESS...GRUNDY...HARRISON...HENRY...HOWARD...
JACKSON...JOHNSON...LAFAYETTE...LINN...LIVINGSTON...MACON...MERCER...
PETTIS...PUTNAM...RANDOLPH...RAY...SALINE...SCHUYLER AND SULLIVAN.

IN KANSAS:

LINN AND MIAMI.

SOME CITIES IN THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDE BETHANY...BOONVILLE...
BUTLER...CHILLICOTHE...CLINTON...HARRISONVILLE...KANSAS CITY...
KIRKSVILLE...MARSHALL...MOBERLY...PAOLA...SEDALIA...TRENTON AND
WARRENSBURG.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MJ