1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 27, 3:35 AM CST, 5 hours 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 335 AM CST SAT NOV 27 2004 .DISCUSSION... SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ONGOING THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A LITTLE POST FRONTAL RAIN IS NEARING THE KANSAS/MISSOURI STATE LINE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE RAIN IS OVER IN THE WESTERN HALF. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING...SO AM ANTICIPATING THE PRECIP TO SHUT OFF SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. SOME OF THE RAIN THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE THUNDER IS OVER NOW. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE VERY LITTLE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI TODAY...AND BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE EASTERN HALF. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH NEARS THE AREA TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. LVQ THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESUME EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MODELS AGREE THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THE GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF, UKMET, AND THE CANADIAN MODELS BRINGING THE CUTOFF THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THE ETA MODEL IS ALMOST A DAY QUICKER, AND SEEMS MUCH TOO FAST SINCE A KICKER FOR THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SHORE OF OREGON UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL INDUCE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AS A RESULT. DEEP MOISTURE RETURN IS EVIDENT ISENTROPIC CHARTS AS EARLY AS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY, SO IVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER EARLY MONDAY. CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER INDICATE THAT THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN I-70 AND HIGHWAY 36. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA DONT MOVE THE RAIN SNOW LINE MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, IVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR KANSAS CITY, CARROLLTON, MOBERLY, AND KIRKSVILLE. THERMAL PROFILES FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. ANOTHER BIG SNOW DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI, BUT INTENSE SNOWFALL LIKE KANSAS CITY EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM DEEPENED RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKED THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE UPPER LOW FORECAST FOR THIS WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS OF THE STORM LAST WEDNESDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. KOCH && .PREV DISCUSSION... ADDING SOME THUNDER IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST THETA E ADVECTION IS OCCURRING LATE THIS EVENING...AND SEEING LIGHTNING JUST SOUTH OF REGION AT THIS TIME. PC 655 PM FRI... SOME MINOR REVISIONS TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FORECAST TO BETTER FIT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS BASED ON PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND MOVES OUT OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FREEZING LEVEL DROPPING TO BELOW 900 MB IN THOSE AREAS AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. ALSO WILL SLOW THE RATE OF COOLING TONIGHT AS AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS INITIALLY NOT THAT COOL. STILL SEEING LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT IN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. PC 351 PM FRI... SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW THE NATION..AS A WHOLE...DOMINATED BY A WEAK TROUGH. A SLOWLY DEEPENING SHORTWAVE IS NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN TODAY. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL EJECT THROUGH THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. OVERNIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT PRECIP. BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING COMPONENT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT AS A THETA-E RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHEAST. RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OUT OF THE SATURATED AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER AS THE WARM TEMPERATURES ADVECTED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL PREVENT THE COLUMN OF AIR FROM COOLING ENOUGH TO CHANGE OVER. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL RECEIVE. SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE STILL JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR HAVE JUST GONE BELOW. IT SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN TO SEND SOME OF THESE RIVERS BACK INTO FLOOD. HOWEVER...QPF IS LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...SO I HAVE NOT ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH...BUT HYDRO WILL NEED WATCHING. FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS SPUN UP MOVING EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON THE BACK SIDE LOOK TO INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SO I HAVE UPPED WINDS A LITTLE. THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION OF THE WIND WILL BRING NOTHING BUT COOL AIR TO KANSAS AND MISSOURI TOMORROW. THEREFORE... LEFT TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...I LEFT THE FORECAST AS IS. GFS AND ETA STILL AGREE THAT PRECIP SHOULD START SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CONTINUES TO BE TRICKY...BUT I SAW NO STRONG REASON TO LIFT IT NORTH OF ITS CURRENT LOCATION SOUTH OF I-70 RIGHT NOW. OTHERWISE...KEPT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL DUE TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. WARM ADVECTION TYPE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SPREADING THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AHEAD OF AN EJECTING UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS HAS FLIP FLOPPED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY UPPER LOW FORECAST TRACK WITH A MORE ELONGATED LOOKING TROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF HAS RETAINED BETTER CONSISTENCY AND TAKES THE LOW FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...MORE LIKE YESTERDAYS 00Z GFS. FOLLOWED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF WHICH RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WHICH TRANSLATES TO PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW POSSIBLY DELAYED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY. CUTTER/STOFLET && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. WFO EAX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 545 AM CST SAT NOV 27 2004 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-271900- THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT LAST NIGHTS RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER, THE PETITE SALINE CREEK, BIG CREEK, AND THE BLACKWATER RIVER. REFERENCE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL FOR CURRENT STAGES ON THESE RIVERS AND OTHER RIVERS THAT MAY RISE TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI AS EARLY AS TOMORROW NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS GREATER ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36, INCLUDING SAINT JOSEPH, TRENTON, KIRKSVILLE, AND MARYVILLE. WET SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS KANSAS CITY, MARSHALL, AND MOBERLY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT (LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV. KOCH
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Petite Saline Creek near Boonville crested at 18.65 feet, or 2.65 feet above flood stage. The Lamine River near Otterville crested at 18.67 feet, or 3.67 feet above flood stage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, November 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5427880.