Damaging Wind in Missouri, March 29, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CST MON MAR 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THREE DISTINCT SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED LINES OF CONVECTION WERE
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.  THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION HAD EXITED SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANOTHER MORE INTENSE LINE OF STORMS WAS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS BORDER. THE STORMS WERE FIRING IN
RESPONSE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY INDUCED BY
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL.  A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL WAS
AIDING HAIL DEVELOPMENT SEVERAL OF THE STORMS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND EVENTUALLY CUTOFF OVER
THE RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE
AS STEEP AND EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED.  LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW ZERO. EXPECT STRATUS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  SOME CONCERN OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT STRATUS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THEM IN LATER
FORECAST IF CLOUD COVERAGE BECOMES MORE DEFINITE.

A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE
IFR...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE
SHOWERS. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO THE 3
TO 5 MILE RANGE.  CEILINGS WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE 4000 TO 6000
FOOT RANGE BUT LOWER TO NEAR 3000 FEET IN THE SHOWERS. THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
334 PM CST MON MAR 29 2004

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301200-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
334 PM CST MON MAR 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PEA TO PENNY SIZE
  HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD CORE UPPER
  LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
  UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
  HAZARD DUE TO A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL IN THE LOWER
  ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
  STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE COVERAGE
  OF STORMS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
  DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASED INSTABILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE
  REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD BE
  PREPARED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY STEPS TO PROTECT THE OUTDOOR
  VEGETATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER
  SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL APPROACHING PENNY
  SIZE.  PLEASE RELAY YOUR HAIL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
  SPRINGFIELD.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
404 PM CST MON MAR 29 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             HURLEY                  36.93N 93.50W
03/29/2004  1.00 INCH        STONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0355 PM     HAIL             3 N BOLIVAR             37.66N 93.42W
03/29/2004  0.75 INCH        POLK               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0402 PM     HAIL             WILLARD                 37.30N 93.43W
03/29/2004  0.75 INCH        GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
413 PM CST MON MAR 29 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WIND DMG    ABESVILLE               36.83N 93.37W
03/29/2004                   STONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10 DIAMETER TREE DOWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
416 PM CST MON MAR 29 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.30W
03/29/2004  0.75 INCH        GREENE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
421 PM CST MON MAR 29 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     LIGHTNING        SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.30W
03/29/2004                   GREENE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            *** 0 FATAL, 1 INJ *** 1 PERSON STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

bookbinder

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
441 PM CST MON MAR 29 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             POLK                    37.73N 93.32W
03/29/2004  0.75 INCH        POLK               MO   PUBLIC

0410 PM     HAIL             3 N BOLIVAR             37.66N 93.42W
03/29/2004  0.75 INCH        POLK               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0430 PM     HAIL             ROGERSVILLE             37.12N 93.07W
03/29/2004  0.88 INCH        WEBSTER            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
444 PM CST MON MAR 29 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WIND DMG    BRANSON                 36.65N 93.22W
03/29/2004                   TANEY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES/POWERLINES BLOWN DOWN, ALSO IN OTHER LOCATIONS IN
            THE COUNTY