Flash Flood in Mississippi, May 12, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
250PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...LEADING EDGE OF MCS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.  LATEST RADAR ESTIMATES ACROSS THE
AREA SHOW 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI IN THE PAST TWO HOURS.  WILL EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
UNTIL 1000 PM AND WILL INCLUDE ALL FIVE OF OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES.  WILL PUT IN FINAL POP NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT NEAR ISSUANCE
TIME.  CURRENT THINKING IS HIGH POPS ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES.  SHORT
WAVE THAT IS HELPING PUSH MCS IS FORECAST TO ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WAVE MOVES OUT OF AREA.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  POPS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER DURING DAYTIME HEATING.  AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL
STAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WILL CARRY AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RW/TRW THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
NORTH PART OF CWA AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RW/TRW DEVELOPMENT
ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EXTENDED...LEFT EXTENDED FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) LIKE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE ONLY CHANGE WAS LESS OF A CHANCE OF RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HOW LONG WILL WINDS STAY UP.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG WITH A STRONG GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY.  WILL PUT IN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TONIGHT.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND.

15 KNOT SELY ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES ON THURSDAY.  OUTLOOK...WE SHOULD BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE SLIGHT RISK RIP CURRENT CATEGORY BY SAT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT AND THE TIDE GETS INTO A NEAP
CYCLE.

&&

.FIRE...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     69 82 67 84 / 60 40 20 30
PENSACOLA  69 80 67 81 / 30 40 20 30
DESTIN     70 80 70 81 / 30 40 20 30
EVERGREEN  65 83 64 84 / 60 50 20 30
WAYNESBORO 65 82 64 82 / 60 50 20 30
CAMDEN     64 83 64 84 / 70 50 20 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

&&

01/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121700-
BUTLER AL-CHOCTAW AL-CLARKE AL-COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-COASTAL OKALOOSA
FL-COASTAL SANTA ROSA FL-CONECUH AL-COVINGTON AL-CRENSHAW
AL-ESCAMBIA AL-GEORGE MS-GREENE MS-INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-INLAND
OKALOOSA FL-INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-LOWER BALDWIN AL-LOWER MOBILE
AL-MONROE AL-PERRY MS-STONE MS-UPPER BALDWIN AL-UPPER MOBILE
AL-WASHINGTON AL-WAYNE MS-WILCOX AL-
525 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...GENERATING A COMPLEX OF STRONG SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF LOUISIANA THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TODAY.  THE SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS COMPLEX WILL GENERATE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

WHILE MANY AREAS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...STONE
AND GEORGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL RECEIVE THOSE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ON TOP OF SATURATED GROUNDS FROM HEAVY RAINS
SEEN YESTERDAY.  THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH COMBINED WITH OUTGOING TIDES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS IN THE SURF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION ON INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH AND STALLS OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.  AT THIS
TIME...THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE NECESSARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TODAY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
117 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

MSZ067-075-076-121900-
PERRY-GREENE-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEAKESVILLE...NEW AUGUSTA AND WAYNESBORO...
117 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

...A LINE OF INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE MOVING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

AT 107 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9 MILES WEST OF HIWANNEE TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF JANICE...AND WAS MOVING EAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
RICHTON...KITTRELL...HINTONVILLE...MULBERRY...JANICE AND HIWANNEE
THROUGH 200 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES THROUGH 315 PM CDT. LOCALLY...UP TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES
AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
158 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

ALZ051-052-MSZ067-075-076-122000-
WASHINGTON-CHOCTAW-PERRY-GREENE-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEAKESVILLE AND WAYNESBORO...
158 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH 3 PM CDT...

AT 156 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9 MILES WEST OF CYRIL TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JANICE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
WINCHESTER...MCLAIN...NEELY...CHICORA...ROBINSON JUNCTION...ROYCE AND
GRETNA THROUGH 300 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN
AN HOURS...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

THESE STORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES
AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.