Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 12 to 13, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
MAIN QUESTION FOR SHORT TERM IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND CONVECTIVE
MODE.

NOT A LOT OF TIME TODAY AS DIAGNOSIS AND COLLABORATION WERE BUSY
JOBS TODAY. NO SURPRISES FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS INSOFAR AS SYNOPTIC
SCALE EVOLUTION IS CONCERNED AS WAVE AFTER WAVE ALOFT DIGS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EVER EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS WHILE A
LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT HAD PLUNGED INTO THE PANHANDLES AND NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO BY THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WAS STALLED FROM
NORTHEAST KANSAS SOUTHWEST AND REMAINED JUST NORTH OF MEDICINE LODGE
WITH A SMALL CYCLONE NEAR SLAPOUT OK AND A DRY LINE SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA TEXAS LINE. WESTWARD, THE FRONT PULLS BACK TO THE NORTH AS
LEE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AROUND TRINIDAD CO. FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS NEBRASKA SOME REALLY COLD AIR IS BLASTING SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

OUR THOUGHTS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THE
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY EVOLVE INTO A FEW
SUPERCELLS AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT LEADING EDGE.
SBCAPE AT THIS LOCATION COULD WELL BE AROUND 3000 J/KG BY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

FARTHER WEST, THE EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE HIGH TERRAIN OF COLORADO
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FORCE SOME MECHANICALLY SPONSORED
CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD THEN WORK EASTWARD ALONG THE HIGH THETAE
RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME QUICKLY MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE AND
WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO DRAW ON WHEN IT REACHES THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. CURRENTLY AM EXPECTING TO SEE A SIZABLE
MCS TYPE SYSTEM BLAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. INITIALLY IT WILL BE AN ICE
MACHINE TURNING TO WINDS AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER ACROSS THE CWA IS FROM 3 TO 4 TIMES NORMAL. WILL ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MY CENTRAL ZONES TO COVER THIS
SYSTEM.

THE MCS WILL DRIVE THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HELP OF
THE NEAR ARCTIC AIR COMING OUT OF NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE CLOUDY, BREEZY AND QUITE CHILLY AND HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL CLEAR
SKIES WITH FRIDAY MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S. WITH HIGH SUN
ANGLES AND CLEAR SKIES, FRIDAY SHOULD RECOVER NICELY WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 60S AGAIN.

DAYS 3-7...
THE MOST IMPORTANT CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TO WARM
TEMPERATURES UP EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AND LEESIDE LOW DEVELOPS AGAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  THE INCREASED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.  AT THIS TIME, ITS FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN, AND I DECIDED NOT TO CHANGE ANYTHING IN THE POP/WX
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.  WILL MAINTAIN THAT CHANCE ON SUNDAY, KEEPING
THINGS DRY FOR NOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  WITHOUT THE AID IF A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE DRYLINE
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.  UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE ORDER OF MID NEXT
WEEK, BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 51 55 36 67 / 70 00 00 00
GCK 46 53 36 68 / 70 00 00 00
EHA 48 56 38 69 / 70 00 00 00
LBL 51 57 38 69 / 70 00 00 00
HYS 49 52 37 66 / 70 20 00 00
P28 58 62 47 67 / 70 00 00 00
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...KSZ031-045-046-062>066-075>081 FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT.
&&

JOHNSON/UMSCHEID

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-131000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
359 PM CDT (259 PM MDT) WED MAY 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  LATE THIS AFTERNOON, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS LOCATED FROM SAINT JOHN TO ASHLAND, WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND AREA OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT FROM COLORADO.  THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ALONG WITH THIS THREAT, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AFTER 5 PM
CDT, CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.

UMSCHEID