Hail in Mississippi, June 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...WE FINALLY BROKE THE 90 DEGREE BARRIER THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTUALLY WE REACHED 91 AS OF THIS WRITING. FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST...EXPECT LOWS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS
AROUND 90. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE SEEMS TO HAVE MORE OF
A FOOT HOLD THAN PAST FEW DAYS AS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
SUPPRESSED. FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE EAST AND SE WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL EXIST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN
FROM THE SE STATES UNDERNEATH THE 850/700 MB ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION.

BY LATE FRI...UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED TO THE SE AND WILL ALLOW SAT
TO BE A TRANSITION DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE S/SW WHILE
LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. FEEL THAT WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING AND UPPER RIDGE GETTING FURTHER
SE...SCT STORM CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED.

BY SUN/MON...MANY FIELDS COME TOGETHER FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. AS I
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WAS SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODEL NOT GENERATE
PRECIP WITH SUCH FAVORABLE FIELDS FOR RAIN. THE LATEST MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THE MOISTURE AND WIND FIELDS AND NOW GENERATE
PRECIP. THIS MAKE MORE SENSE AND CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR A WET
PATTERN SUN/MON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO APPROACH
NORTHERN MS...BUT I FEEL THAT IS ABOUT AS FAR AS IT CAN MAKE IT.
MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE WILL HAVE TO BE SHOWN BEFORE I CAN
BITE OFF ON A FRONT MOVING WELL INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME...THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND A
LINGERING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVELS...SCT POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON   70 90 70 90 72 / 10 20 10 20 10
MERIDIAN  68 90 68 90 70 / 20 30 10 20 10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

36/ENTREMONT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
203 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
091903-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
203 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WEST OF
LINE FROM CLEVELAND...TO JACKSON...TO QUITMAN. THE MOST INTENSE
CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THE REGION TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE
EVEN MORE ISOLATED...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IN EXTREME
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A FEW STORMS HERE COULD ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY...JUNE 15TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.