Damaging Wind in Mississippi, August 10, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
248 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

.SHORT TERM...
EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS A SHEAR AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS
FAR AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE MOISTURE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH THE WETTER ETA SOLUTION AS THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE RIGHT DURING MAX HEATING. WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE JET AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NEAR 2.0...0-6 LAYER SHEAR IS
25-30KTS...AND DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF CONCERN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE BUT WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT EVALUATE THAT
FURTHER. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WILL BE THE
MAIN PROBLEM...DEPENDING ON WHERE IT MAKES LANDFALL. NHC HAS IT
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH THIS SOLUTION
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WEST AND
NORTH COUNTIES ON FRIDAY BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL EXTEND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...SO WILL LEAVE 40 POPS IN THE
SOUTH. BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RULE
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...OF COURSE THAT IS WITH THE CAVEAT NAMED BONNIE.

.LONG TERM...
GFS ENSEMBLES STILL INDICATE AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
ENSEMBLES AS TO WHEN THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFT NORTH EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT A FEW OF THEM STILL SHOW A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL EFFECT LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND ALSO THE MOVEMENT OF CHARLIE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT ON MORNING TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...AS THE WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE TO STRONG FRIDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHTER WINDS SATURDAY
MORNING SO WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 60. FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND LOW RH VALUES WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  90  67  82 /  20  60  70  40
MERIDIAN      69  91  67  83 /  30  60  70  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
111943-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. EXPECT
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKLAMISS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE...MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND SLIGHT WIND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE A FEW STORMS THE ABILITY TO
GENERATE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...LIFT...AND SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 40 TO 50 MILE PER HOUR
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS... AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY AUGUST 17.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.