Flash Flood in Minnesota, July 5, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
355 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...
DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER CENT IA WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO SW WI
BY 12Z TUE. SYSTEM HAS STRONG UL DIV FCST OVERNIGHT FROM FAVORABLE
JET QUAD WHICH WILL CREATE LOTS OF LIFT AS IT PASSES BY SE ZONES
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...PRECIP WATER VALUES FCST TO BE AROUND 1.7
INCHES ALONG AND SE OF LINE FROM RWF TO RGK TO EAU /CLOSER TO 1.4 IN
NW ZONES/. THIS GIVES THE STORM A LOT OF WATER TO SQUEEZE OUT AS IT
PASSES BY. PER COORD WITH ARX HAVE UPPED QPF BASIN AVG TO NEAR AN
INCH BY TUE MORN FAR SE...WITH AMTS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE
NW...ABOUT 0.5 CENTRAL ZONES AND 0.25 NW ZONES. OF COURSE...LOCAL
AMTS COULD BE HIGHER W/CONVECTION SE ZONES...2-3 INCH TOTALS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN A FEW SPOTS.

BY TUE MORN...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS SW ZONES. BY
MIDDAY THE CENT AND SE ZONES WILL SEE THE SAME. ACROSS N AND NE
ZONES...STILL A LOT OF UL DIV ASSOC WITH UL JET IN REGION SO
WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL CONTINUE THERE UNTIL TUE EVE. HIGHS ON TUE WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND EXITING LOW. /AVG HIGH JULY 6 IN
THE LOWER 80S AT MSP/

SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS FAR ENOUGH AWAY /NEAR N LAKE MI/ BY WED MORN SO
POPS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END FAR NE WED MORN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WED INTO THU AFT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. STRONG WAA KICKS IN THU SO
TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TO NEAR 80 DEGREE NORMS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THUR NIGHT THROUGH MON...

STILL NICE CONTINUITY IN EXTENDED...AND A TRANSITION TO A SEEMINGLY
ACTIVE PD IN THE HEART OF DAYS 4-7 AS STRONG UPR TROF SOUTH OF
ALASKA NOW SWINGS INTO NRN PLAINS BY FRI. EXPECT AN MCS TO FORM IN
THE ERN DAKS THUR NIGHT AND MOV INTO CWA ON NOSE OF MID LVL CAP AND
VRY STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH STREAM INTO CWA IN EVE. SOME HINTS OF A
WEAK S/W MEANDERING UP WRN EDGE OF H5 RIDGE TO HELP SET THIS
OFF...ALONG WITH 35KTS OF LLJ. SO HAVE POPS LATE THUR NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. FRI EVE LOOKS VRY ACTIVE AS STRONG S/W LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO SRN CAN DRIVES COLD FRONT INTO WRN CWA IN LATE AFTN. PWS INTO
THE 1.75+ RANGE...VRY DIFFLUENT THICKNESS...AND SFC TDS PER
GFS/DGEX IN THE LO 70S SHOULD SPELL A SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVE MCS. CAP MAY BE A PBLM...BUT STRONG AGREEMENT IN
ENSEMBLE/DGEX/GFS OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVR WRN MN FRI AFTN/EVE. FRNT
VRY SLOW TO SHIFT EAST AND SAT COULD BE ERN CWA UNDER GUN (WRN WI)
BUT NOT WILLING TO DROP POPS YET BACK OVR MN. FRNT SHOULD CLEAR CWA
SUN BUT NOT FULLY CONVINCED GIVEN TRANSITION BACK TO WLY/SWLY FLO BY
MON.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

MARGRAF/JVM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1232 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-061100-
ANOKA-BARRON-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-RUSK-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
1232 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.