Flash Flooding and Hail in Tennessee, July 5 to 6, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1015 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...
IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY, WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 900 AM RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID
80S.

FORTUNATELY, AS FAR AS MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS CONCERNED, IT LOOKS LIKE
MCS/MCCS WILL BE MORE WELL BEHAVED AND REMAIN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL VERY UNSTABLE AND ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT TODAYS STORMS WILL BE SUN-DRIVEN,
TAPPING ON A HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT, TO PRODUCE A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNBURST EVENTS (RATHER THAN THE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF WIND
DAMAGE COMMON WITH MCSS). ALSO, WITH THE VIL OF THE DAY BEING ONLY
54, THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

STATISTICS FOR THE 12Z BNA SOUNDING, MODIFIED FOR A MAX TEMPERATURE
OF 91, ARE AS FOLLOWS:

CAPE 3344 J/KG

EL + 20%  53247 FT

LI  -7

HGT OF MINUS 20  25.3K FT

WET-BULB ZERO HGT  12330 FT

TOTAL TOTALS 47

SWEAT INDEX 202

PWA 1.41 INCHES

AS FAR AS EXPECTED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE GOES, BELIEVE OUR ONGOING
30% POP, IS IN THE BALL PARK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OF COURSE, THIS
DOES NOT DIMINISH THE FACT THAT SOME FOLKS WILL STILL GET HAMMERED
BY DAMAGING WINDS, RAIN AND LARGE HAIL FROM JUST ABOUT ANY OF THOSE
LOW COVERAGE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
1152 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH...ALONG AND NORTH
OF I 40...ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MOST OF THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

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