Damaging Wind in Minnesota, July 11, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
304 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS A BIT SLOWER WITH
SHORTWAVE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. A BLEND
OF ETA AND GFS WAS USED.

SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH CWA TODAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE WILL CARRY SOME EVENING POPS IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT INTO TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF 1 TO 2.5
INCHES. LIGHT GRADIENT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...AND SOME COULD BE DENSE.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING IN EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PER SPC DISCUSSION...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
INTO A FAST MOVING LINE. BOTH CORFIDI VECTORS AND MEAN 850MB-300MB
FLOW SUPPORT A FAST MOVEMENT EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND INTRODUCED
A CHANCE IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WE
WILL KEEP LIKELY WORDING IN WESTERN ZONES FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN IT DIVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS FORECAST QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 35-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR.
AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE. LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL KICK
OFF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN MINNESOTA THEN UPPER WAVE WILL AID IN
SUPPORT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...UNTIL UPPER WAVE DEPARTS. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE A DRY
STRETCH AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND WE GET INTO A
NORTHWEST FLOW. NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEK.

HAVE USED A BLEND OF MOS TEMPERATURES.

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

MELDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-121230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DENSE FOG WILL COVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING ON MONDAY. THEN AFTER THE
FOG DISSIPATES THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ON MONDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT AREA INCLUDES ALL OF
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

CS