High Wind in Michigan, September 16, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS HIGH WIND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE TAKING
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS NE THRU MN ARROWHEAD/WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. HAS A CLASSIC HIGH WIND LOOK WITH PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT/SUBSIDENCE REGION SURGING INTO WRN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DEEPENING THRU THE EVENING AS IT
HAS LIFTED NE TOWARD CYQT. 3HR PRES TENDENCY TRENDS SHOW INCREASING
PRES RISE MAX TO SW OF SFC LOW WHICH SEEMS TO BE GIVING A BOOST TO
STRENGTH OF SFC WINDS IN THE LAST FEW HRS. 02Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A 3HR
PRES RISE MAX OF 7.5MB CENTERED JUST SW OF KDLH WITH 4MB PRES FALL
MAX JUST NE OF SFC LOW.

BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS IN MN/NW WI...ALREADY ISSUED WIND ADVY FOR
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON EARLIER IN THE EVENING. KIWD HAS RECENTLY BEEN
REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 45-50MPH...SIMILAR TO KASX. 02Z OB FROM
DISW4 IN APOSTLE ISLANDS INDICATES A GUST TO 51KT. EXPECT WINDS OVER
GOGEBIC COUNTY TO BEGIN DIMINISHING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS
FAVORABLE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS LOST. LAKESHORE LOCATIONS OF
ONTONAGON COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE ADVY TYPE WINDS THRU THE NIGHT.
EXPECT KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO GET BRUNT OF STRONG WINDS GIVEN MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SHORTWAVE PATH AND FAVORABLE OVER WATER
FETCH/TERRAIN ORIENTATION. STRONG WINDS SHOULD BEGIN THERE SHORTLY.
SEE NO REASON WHY 40MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR 58 MPH WIND GUSTS OR
HIGHER WILL OCCUR THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION FOR THU THRU WED ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT.

OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS IN STORE FOR THU-SAT
(THOUGH NOT UNSEASONABLY SO) AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING FOR HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EACH DAY AS FLOW VEERS TO THE E BY SAT.

IN THE EXTENDED...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING WESTERN
TROF WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARM WX FOR SUN INTO TUE.
SLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS INTO THE MID TEENS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL REBOUND
TO THE UPR 70S/LWR 80S SUN/MON AND POSSIBLY TUE. HAVE STAYED THE
COURSE WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE (AND PERHAPS NEAR RECORD
LEVELS). APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE WEST TUE AFTN...BUT GREATER CHANCE WILL BE WED
WITH A FROPA.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    HIGH WIND WARNING MIZ001-003 OVERNIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
    WIND ADVY MIZ002 OVERNIGHT.
    WIND ADVY MIZ009 UNTIL 06Z.
    GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

ROLFSON (DISCUSSION)
JKL (PREV DISCUSSION)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-161200-
ALGER-BARAGA-DELTA-DICKINSON-GOGEBIC-IRON-KEWEENAW-LUCE-MARQUETTE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-ONTONAGON-
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
440 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM LANSE TO
WATERSMEET. STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 60 MPH BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. WIND REPORTS ARE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MQT (ALL LOWER CASE)

JKL