Winter Weather in Maine, February 3 to 4, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
620 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2004

.MARINE...
WILL UPDATE TO PUT UP A GALE WARNING TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOWING WINDS
AT SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS INCREASING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS 50 TO 60 KTS SOUTH OF OUR WATERS WHERE BUOYS
REPORTING WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 KNOT RANGE.  A BURST OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP TO MIX WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  LOOKING
FOR A 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF GALE FORCE WINDS /OR FREQUENT GUSTS/
CENTERED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AT PWM AND LATER FURTHER EAST.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW AND WINDS LETTING UP
LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT GO BY.  THIS WILL BLEND
WELL INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.  NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
WILL BE ADDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THE 00Z TAFS FOR A THREE HOUR
WINDOW TONIGHT BASED ON BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS WITH LOW
LEVEL JET OF CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS CENTERED NEAR 06Z AT PWM.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
WILL EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SW NH AND THE SOUTHERN
ME FOOTHILLS FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MARYLAND. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS S NH AND CENTRAL
ME TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK 6 HR SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION...ENTERING NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 7 PM...AND EXITING THE
MAINE MID-COAST AROUND 5 AM. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE RUC 1300 850-1000
MB THICKNESS LINE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SNOW/MIX/RAIN
LINE. FOLLOWING THE RUC AND AN ETA/GFS COMPROMISE FROM 06-12Z...
EXPECT ALL SNOW NORTH OF A BML-GNR LINE. SOUTH OF THIS IN THE
FOOTHILLS EXPECT SNOW TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH
SOME AREAS GETTING UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF SLEET/ICE. ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...EXPECT A COASTAL FRONT TO FORM...LIFTING INLAND 10
TO 20 MILES LATE EVENING...CHANGING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN.
WILL USE RUC FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT GOOD UPSLOPE SNOWS IN
A MOIST 30 KT 925 MB WESTERLY FLOW. DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO CARRY
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ETA/GFS BOTH SHOW
A STRONG VORTICITY MAX AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN UNTIL FRIDAY.  WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES...GENERALLY STICK CLOSE TO MAV MOS FOR
TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AHEAD...12Z GFS REPRESENTS A GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z
RUNS. A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF THIS ZONE
(12Z/00Z EUROPEAN/GEM HAVE IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE...WHILE THE
00Z GFS/UKMET HAVE THIS ZONE S OF CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA). MODELS
ALSO DISAGREE ON WHICH WAVE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THIS ZONE...WITH THE
GEM KEYING ON A SLOWER SHORTWAVE THAN OTHER MODELS. FOLLOWING A
CONSENSUS...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST AND FOOTHILLS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AND ON
SATURDAY. WILL BUMP UP 00Z MEXMOS TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY AND
WILL SHOW RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST A MODERATE IMPACT STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW.

BEYOND...USE A GFS/EUROPEAN BLEND (DO NOT BUY THE CUT-OFF LOW THE
GEM SHOWS).  EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SLOW THINGS A BIT FROM 00Z GFS RUN...FOLLOWING THE
SLOWER EUROPEAN SOLUTION...HOLDING OFF THE NEXT SYSTEM TIL TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP NOW AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL INTRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WX ADVISORY MEZ007>009-012>018-022.
  ...GLW.
NH...WINTER WX ADVISORY NHZ001>009.
  ...GLW.

SJC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
718 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2004

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-031416-
ANDROSCOGGIN ME-BELKNAP NH-CENTRAL SOMERSET ME-COASTAL CUMBERLAND ME-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM NH-COASTAL WALDO ME-COASTAL YORK ME-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND ME-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM NH-INTERIOR WALDO ME-
INTERIOR YORK ME-KENNEBEC ME-KNOX ME-LINCOLN ME-MERRIMACK NH-
NORTHERN CARROLL NH-NORTHERN COOS NH-NORTHERN FRANKLIN ME-
NORTHERN GRAFTON NH-NORTHERN OXFORD ME-SAGADAHOC ME-
SOUTHERN CARROLL NH-SOUTHERN COOS NH-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN ME-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON NH-SOUTHERN OXFORD ME-SOUTHERN SOMERSET ME-
STRAFFORD NH-SULLIVAN NH-
718 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE
AND NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING.  3-6 INCHES ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND
LESSER AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS.
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN CAUSING SOME HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.  ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.