Hail in Louisiana, June 5, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
131 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE
CHANDELEUR ISLANDS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  WARM...MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LI/S IN THE -8
TO -10 RANGE IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE PCWA.
ALOFT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVES
OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  ON MONDAY WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS POPS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THROUGH TOMORROW.  MOST OF THE
WORKWEEK SHOULD SEE POPS NEAR CLIMO WITH THE MAIN INFLUENCE BEING
THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS...
MCB 68 86 69 89 / 30 50 20 30
BTR 70 86 70 89 / 30 50 20 30
MSY 74 86 74 90 / 30 50 20 30
GPT 72 85 73 87 / 30 50 20 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-061200-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1100 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. HOWEVER OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 30 TO
40 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
407 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

LAZ049-057>060-065-052215-
ASCENSION-ST CHARLES-ST JAMES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
UPPER TERREBONNE-
407 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE RIVER PARISHES...

AT 405 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST EAST OF GONZALES TO LAPLACE
THEN EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS ST. JAMES AND ST. CHARLES PARISHES TO
JUST NORTH OF THIBODAUX.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO MARBLE
SIZE HAIL...RAINFALL OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 515 PM.
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER THREAT.