Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 5, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
223 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT:
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT OVER ERN KS AT MID PM, WL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER SERN KS THRU EARLY
EVE. OTHERWISE, LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SFC TROUGH FM
W-CNTRL KS THRU N-CNTRL KS, INTO ERN NEBRASKA. THIS BOUNDARY IS
BEING AIDED BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TRAILING FM THE NRN PLAINS
ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA INTO ERN CO THIS PM. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
KS THIS EVENING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NR THE SFC
TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WITH THAT AREA NOW EXPERIENCING MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A FEW OF THOSE STORMS COULD
BE SVR WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL THREAT. STORMS SHOULD MOVE AND
PROPAGATE SEWD INTO S-CNTRL KS AND THE FLINT HILLS THIS EVENING.
HIGHEST POPS TARGETED FOR S-CNTRL/SERN KS WITH THAT AREA IN BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK 850 THETA-E ADVECTION. SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/E OF THE KS TURNPIKE LATE TONIGHT, WITH THOSE
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO SUN AM.

SUNDAY:
WL HANG ONTO SOME 20-30% POPS IN SERN KS FOR MAINLY THE MORNING HRS,
BUT CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT SEWD OUT OF SERN KS IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPR LVL TROF. THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEW LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN
WRN SD. HIGHS IN LOW-MID 80S APPEAR REASONABLE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SE WINDS.

MONDAY:
CYCLOGENESIS WL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE DOWN INTO NWRN NEBRASKA WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER KS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
EXPECTED, AND WITH MID LVL TEMPS WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY, OUR FCST
AREA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED. LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGHS FM UPR
80S SERN KS, TO MID 90S BY RSL/GBD.

TUES-SAT:
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FCST FOR THIS TIME FRAME. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, OUR FCST AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER HIGH CENTERED FROM THE UPR MIDWEST/OH VLY INTO THE SERN U.S..
NEXT UPPER TROF OUT WEST IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING
UPPER TROFFING WL LINGER IN THE WRN/CNTRL U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE PROGGED TO COME THRU OUR FCST SOMETIME THURS
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHICH WL BE WHEN OUR NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND PSBL SEVERE WEATHER WL BE. LATER SHIFTS MAY END UP
BOOSTING POPS SOME.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA         64  84  68  92 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  85  67  92 /  50  10  10   5
NEWTON          63  84  67  91 /  50  10  10   5
ELDORADO        64  83  67  90 /  50  10  10  10
STROTHER FIELD  64  84  68  92 /  60  20  10  10
RUSSELL         60  87  66  95 /  40  10   5   0
GREAT BEND      61  87  67  95 /  40  10   5   5
SALINA          61  85  68  92 /  40  10   5   5
MCPHERSON       62  85  67  92 /  40  10  10   5
COFFEYVILLE     65  82  68  88 /  60  30  10  10
CHANUTE         64  81  67  88 /  50  20  10  10
IOLA            64  81  67  87 /  50  20  10  10
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

9/CARUSO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-061200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
310 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OF A PULSE VARIANT, AND
MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH DIAMATER.

FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP, THEN INCREASE, ALONG A COLD FRONT
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND UPON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND RESULTANT
HEATING, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER
RAIN. IF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS, BOTH LARGE HAIL OF AT LEAST 3/4 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD POSE THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
TIMING, MAGNITUDE AND THREAT, ALL CONCERNED PARTIES SHOULD BE ATTENTIVE
TO SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

HOWERTON/ES