A thunderstorm wind gust of 39 knots was measured at Presque Isle Light.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A thunderstorm wind gust of 39 knots was measured at Presque Isle Light.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 12, 8:55 PM EST, 3 hours 57 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 955 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2004 .SHORT TERM...1007MB SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SUPERIOR...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING W AND SW OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO FORM IN CENTRAL LOWER MI AND IN EASTERN UPPER MI. OVERNIGHT PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN ISSUES. OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROGS ARGUE FOR THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALL NIGHT LONG. CAPES WILL RUN AROUND 500J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM THE 900-950MB LAYER. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS INCREASING IN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE IS NOT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF FORCING AVAILABLE...WITH 850/700 AND 700/600MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (SOME PRESENT OVER THE WEST LATE). BUT MULTIPLE CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT MAXIMA WILL BE PRESENT. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE WEST...CENTRAL AND NORTH TO 80...WITH HIGH-END SCT POPS (50) NEAR AND EAST OF M-33. SVR POTENTIAL MIMINAL WITH ONLY TRIPLE-DIGIT CAPE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 25KT. ZOLTOWSKI && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 350 PM WED MAY 12... LONG TERM...FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON POPS/TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY. ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WELL DEFINED UPSTREAM BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 MB QG FORCING/MOIST AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE SURFACE LOW OVER MN WILL PUSH NE AND WILL PULL A COLD FRONT INTO N/W COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO JUSTIFIES A CONTINUATION OF LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...WITH THE FRONT ENCOUNTERING INCREASING RESISTANCE FROM RIDGE CENTERED SE OF THE FORECAST AREA...STRENGTH/PROGRESS OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BOLSTERS 12Z ETA DEPICTION OF AT LEAST SHALLOW COLD FROPA THROUGH N/W COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN UP (60-65F) SHOULD OCCUR BY MIDDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON (PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES MOIST MARINE LAYER/FOG INTO COASTAL AREAS). IN CONTRAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE E/SE WHERE FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING...12Z ETA/GFS DEPICT A DEFINITE PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING...BETWEEN DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH/Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION. GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE TO LOWER POPS TO CHANCE FOR A PERIOD...THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS W/SW COUNTIES AND THURSDAY EVENING ALL AREAS. THEN...NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NE FROM LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES...PUSHING A SURFACE WAVE THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT PRECIP TO PUSH BACK INTO N/W COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT...THEN 12Z ETA/GFS DEPICTION OF AXIS OF 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ALONG/NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY/TRACK OF SURFACE WAVE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST HIGH LIKELY (70%) POPS ALL AREAS...WITH AN EYE TOWARD EVENTUALLY RAISING POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS AS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE FOCUSED FOR LATER ISSUANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODEL TREND IS TOWARD A FASTER FROPA/DRYING TREND AS DEPICTED BY THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ETA. THUS...WILL REDUCE COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE E/SE...AND WILL ELIMINATE POPS ACROSS THE E/SE SATURDAY MORNING...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND THERMAL TROUGH (850 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -3C NORTH TO +2C SOUTH...500 B TEMPS FALLING TO -24C NORTH/-18C SOUTH) SUGGESTS ANY ATTEMPT AT MORNING CLEARING WILL BE OFFSET BY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE LOW LEVEL MIXED/MOIST LAYER SUGGESTS POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED IN THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY GIVING WAY TO WARM ADVECTION MONDAY (RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST AREAS)...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC (ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP MAY BYPASS AREA TO THE N/W)...THEN CHANCE POPS WITH FROPA ALL AREAS MON NITE AND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TUESDAY. DUE TO COMBINATION OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND POST FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH...ADDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN UP TUESDAY. THEN...RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS BEYOND OF STALLED FRONT/ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ROWLEY && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 430 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2004 MIZ008-015>036-041-042-131100- ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA- CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU- MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO- PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD- 430 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT UNTIL 10 PM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ON LAND AND EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS IN MARINE AREAS...AS WELL AS HAIL TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER...ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF I-75...AND ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS PLEASE RELAY WIND AND HAIL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX (ALL LOWER CASE) ROWLEY
4 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5396219, 5396220, 5396221, 5396222.