Tornado and Flash Flooding in Texas, May 13, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
S/W COMING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE EXTREMELY
SATURATED AIRMASS OVER SETX THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE SHOULD ALSO SEE
A MARKED INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH TIME GIVEN THE MUCH WEAKER CAP
PER 0Z LCH SOUNDING. WILL LIKELY GO LIKELY POPS AND ADD THE MENTION
OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY. PARTS OF THE CWA HAVE ALREADY SEEN QUITE A BIT
OF RAIN THE LAST FEW DAYS SO THE RUN OFF SHOULD BE QUICK. LOOKING A-
HEAD...THE TIMING OF THE S/WS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WITH
THE MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL BE LEANING A BIT MORE WITH THE GFS
AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE BEST THIS RUN (WITH THE ONGOING
FEATURES). GIVEN THAT...WE ARE BEING PINGED AGAIN FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
WELL DEFINED S/W MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREAT WET LOOKS TO CON-
TINUE THRU THE WEEKEND AS AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS LINGERS ALONG THE
COAST AND A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE PERSISTENT
DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING A
SLOW DRYING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SCEC BAYS AND 0-60 NM WATERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)  83 71 83 66 82 / 70 40 60 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH)          84 72 83 67 82 / 70 40 60 40 50
GALVESTON(GLS)         81 73 81 70 80 / 70 40 60 40 50
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
715 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-131200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
715 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN. FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT...
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IN
ADDITION TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEABREEZE WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT THE SCATTERED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN THESE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. RESIDENTS OF COLORADO...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA AND WHARTON COUNTIES HAVE BEEN THE HARDEST HIT AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY WILL RUN OFF QUICKLY. THIS MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH
VERY RICH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF. A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CHANNEL A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PROTRACTED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS. THE GROUND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIKELY BECOME SATURATED WITH THESE RAINS
AND MAY LEAD TO EXTENSIVE RUNOFF. A RIVER FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
WEDNESDAY AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED AS WELL AS DETAILS IN THE
TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUALS BOUTS OF RAINFALL BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.