Ice Storm in Kentucky, January 25, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1115 PM EST SAT JAN 23

.DISCUSSION...

03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER NORTHERN OHIO SPILLING
THE DENSE COLD AIR INTO EAST KENTUCKY. SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE
FILTERING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO WITH TEENS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO
NORTHERN KENTUCKY...FGX REPORTING 17 DEGREES ATTM. THIS IS THE FIRST
INGREDIENT FOR OUR UPCOMING ICE STORM. THE OTHER IS JUST BEGINNING
TO SHOW UP ACROSS FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE...IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS IS OOZING NORTH ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...DESTINED TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR LEADING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR MOST OF EAST
KENTUCKY AND SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
DECENT ENOUGH SHAPE...BUT WILL TINKER WITH TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR
THE GRIDS AND WEB GRAPHICS. WILL ALSO ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE
ZFP JUST TO INCREASE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...THE REST IS RIGHT ON.
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

730 PM EST SAT JAN 23

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
ARE DOWN INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  SURFACE CAA WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT.  NOT A GOOD SCENARIO AS WARM AIR WILL RIDE OVER THE COLD
AIR TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAWN WILL PRESENT A SERIOUS ICE
ACCUMULATION.  I FAVOR ETA SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF ICE
AS GFS TENDS TO RUN TOO COLD IN THESE SITUATIONS.  SINCE LOWER
LEVELS ARE CRITICAL FOR DETERMINING ICE ACCUMULATIONS...GFS WAS NOT
FAVORED.  DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM POPS IN THE FIRST FEW PERIODS
AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY PROBLEM GETTING PRECIP ON
SUNDAY...AND I LIKE MESOETA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.   ONSET MAY BE
SLEET AND PERHAPS SNOW AS WARM LAYER ABOVE SURFACE WARMS PAST THE 0
AND 1 DEGREE RANGE.  THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS WARM AIR
REALLY STARTS TO RUN OVER THE COLD AIR QUICKLY. NORTHERN COUNTIES
MAY HOLD ON TO SLEET LONGER...BUT A MUCH LONGER PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED. AT THE RATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING...I
THINK EVEN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
AS THE ONSET LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD QPF FROM THE BEGINNING.  HEAVIEST
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY WHERE I EXPECT THE LONGER PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN.  LESS IN THE SOUTH...MORE IN THE NORTH.  A VERY
SERIOUS SITUATION IS SHAPING UP...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64...PARTICULARLY OUR MOST NORTHERN COUNTY...FLEMING.
THESE AREAS WILL POTENTIALLY HAVE FREEZING RAIN FROM JUST AFTER DAWN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE LIQUID
FORM.  MORE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COMES MONDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM PULLS THROUGH...WITH WARM AIR ONCE AGAIN RIDING OVER
COLD AIR.  NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...AND THE DURATION
SHOULD BE MUCH SHORTER IF FREEZING RAIN OCCURS AT ALL.

EXTENDED...PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN US WITH VERY COLD AIR MASS PUSHING IN FROM CANADA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. BUT LATEST 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER BC OF CANADA WHICH HAS THE EFFECT OF REDIRECTING THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW MORE FROM THE PACIFIC ARENA RATHER THAN FROM CANADA.
CONSEQUENTLY...GFS IS TRENDING QUITE A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE THIS MORNINGS RUN WAS
GOOD...AND HAD COLD AIR DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WITH DECENT
RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST
RUN INDICATING SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE...AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO
LATEST MODEL RUN. PER HPCS THOUGHTS...WILL STICK CLOSER TO PREVIOUS
COLDER SOLUTIONS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR NOW.

OVERALL...ONLY INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECASTS RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MID WEEK
AHEAD OF SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY.
FRIDAYS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIP FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN SHOULD BRING IN A GOOD SOLID BLAST OF
VERY COLD AIR. ONCE THE COLD AIR IS IN PLACE...A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
COULD BE OUR FIRST GOOD SNOW MAKER FOR THE FIRST DAY OR TWO IN
FEBRUARY.

&&

1205 PM EST SAT JAN 23

SENT A QUICK UPDATE FOR SKY COVER...SLIGHT TEMP ADJUSTMENT AND
REMOVAL OF MORNING WORDING.

&&

900 AM EST SAT JAN 23

A VERY BUSY MIDNIGHT SHIFT WITH A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT APPEARING
TO BE HEADED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
PARTICULARLY TEMPS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. HAVE GONE WITH THE ETA. IT
SEEMS TO DO A BETTER JOB WITH LOW LEVEL TEMP FIELDS IN ACTIVE
WEATHER. THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORTING FEATURES...WHICH LENDS FURTHER CREDENCE TO THE
DIFFERENCES BEING MORE OR LESS DUE TO THE MODELS ABILITY TO HANDLE
DETAILS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THIS BEING SAID...EXPECT PRECIP TO
SPREAD FROM SW TO NE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
PRECIP FORM LOOKS TO TAKE ITS MOST WINTER FORM IN THE NORTH...BUT
EVEN THERE CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN
BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY. IN THE SOUTH...THERE IS THE
LEAST POTENTIAL FOR ICY CONDITIONS...WITH A LIKELIHOOD THAT PRECIP
WILL GO TO JUST RAIN FAIRLY EARLY ON. HAVE INHERITED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DO NOT WANT TO DROP IT IN THE
SOUTH THIS SOON AND WILL LET IT RIDE IN ORDER TO GET A LITTLE BIT
MORE ASSURANCE OF THE OUTCOME. HOWEVER...IF THINGS DO NOT
CHANGE...IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED OR CONVERTED TO JUST AN
ADVISORY IN OUR SW COUNTIES. OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES HAVE THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF LATER BEING UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING ON THE WATCH TO INCLUDE LATE
TONIGHT IN ALL BUT OUR NORTHEAST BORDER...AND HAVE LIMITED IT SO IT
ENDS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SW.

&&

1120 PM EST FRI JAN 23

03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CLIPPER ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST OHIO VALLEY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR EAST
KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY ON BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THEY HAVE JUST ABOUT PEAKED THOUGH AND SHOULD
REMAIN STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALL WELL IN HAND AND WILL UPDATE THE
ZONES JUST TO CLEAN UP MIDNIGHT WARNING. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS...SKY AND WX...SO SENT THOSE TO NDFD AND
OUR WEB PAGE. UPDATE TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

928 PM EST FRI JAN 23

CURRENTLY AWAITING ARRIVAL OF CLIPPER SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN IL HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME. NOT SEEING A WHOLE OF
LOT SNOWY OBS UPSTREAM SO HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNPLAYED TREND. VERY
DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER US CURRENTLY AND PRECIP WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. DESPITE DEWPOINTS SLOW TO
RISE...TEMPS HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP WITH GOOD WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. HAVE USED A SLOWLY RISING WORDING UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WHERE AM
COUNTING ON ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER TO
KEEP TEMPS MORE STEADY. TOMORROW IS ANOTHER TRICKY TEMP FORECAST AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH COOLER AIR MASS TO PUSH IN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH GENERALLY
LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE REAL STORY IS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW. MOST IMPORTANTLY IS
CURRENT LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO BE IN PLACE FOR ITS ARRIVAL. THE
TREND HAS BEEN COOLER AND DRIER WHILE PROGGED EASTERLY WINDS HAVE
VENTURED FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. ONSET STILL LOOKS TO BE CLOSER
TOWARDS DAWN WITH MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES EARLY ON. QPF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT AND STILL EXPECTING A GOOD SWATH OF AROUND AN INCH ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WITH THE MOST FALLING DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR US...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
BEEN SKEPTICAL ALL ALONG ABOUT HOW MOIST OUR MOST SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL BE...SO HAVE INCLUDED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FREEZING
BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE
UNDER THE GUN THE MOST...AS SURFACE TEMPS UNLIKELY TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE 19Z...WHICH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT AFTER
GLANCING AT THE 18Z MODEL RUNS. ICE AMOUNTS RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST
ZONES...AMOUNTS...AND TIMING...HOWEVER FELT COMPELLED TO JUMP ON
THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.

EXTENDED...DRY COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NEXT
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
CONSISTENTLY PROGGED ARCTIC AIR MASS TO SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXACT TIMING OF THIS STILL IN QUESTION...HOWEVER FRIGID TEMPS LOOK
TO BE ON THE MENU AT SOME POINT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.JKL...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...ICE STORM WARNING FOR ENTIRE
CWA SUNDAY. STARTING BEFORE DAWN IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND ENDING IN
THE EARLY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CWA. SEE SDFWSWJKL FOR DETAILS.

GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR WARNING HEADLINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
602 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TODAY..

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261200-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
602 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A MAJOR FREEZING RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW AT THE ONSET. WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE AREA TODAY...TURNING THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE TURNING TO
ALL RAIN...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RANGES
FROM AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER TO ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE BULK OF THE
AREA WILL SEE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN WINTER STORM REPORTS AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PIEPER