Flooding in Kentucky, February 6 to 9, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1001 PM EST THU FEB 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...

03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROF CONTINUING TO LIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO. A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SOGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TREK THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
DROP ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND 1 TO
1 1/2 ELSEWHERE...PRECIP ENHANCED BY STRONG 850 JET WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DOWNSLOPING WILL CONTINUE TO SPARE THE HEADWATERS
OF THE KENTUCKY AND CUMBERLAND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL ADJUST
TEMPERATURES UP A CATEGORY WITH TEMPS ALREADY RISING AND UPSTREAM
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

WILL LET FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON FRIDAY CONTINUE...FLOODING HAS
GENERALLY BEEN CONCENTRATED IN THE SW PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT WITH
LOW FFG VALUES...A SATURATED GROUND...AND MOST CREEKS AND RIVERS
RUNNING HIGH WILL CLOSELY MONITOR ENTIRE CWA. UPDATE OUT SOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

545 PM EST THU FEB 5 2004

21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WITH A TROUGH AXIS LYING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY. PLENTY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY NECESSITATING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
SEVERAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE EARLIER
SNOW AND SLEET HAS MAINLY MELTED AND WASHED AWAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMBED THROUGH THE 30S AS THE AFTERNOON WORE ON. THE STREAM OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...MEANDERING WEST AND THEN BACK EAST
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THEY
SLOWLY ROLL THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
...GRADUALLY LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRENGTHENING JET STREAK BRINGS IN PLENTY OF
DIVERGENCE AT 300 MBS. ANOTHER BATCH OF DIVERGENCE POUNDS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING ACCOMPANYING A MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE. FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK...RIDGING FOLLOWS THE TROUGH AND MOVES OVER
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. LATER...THE BROAD RIDGE SLIDES EAST
ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
NATION...ROTATING THROUGH EVEN SLOWER. THIS WILL LEAVE THE OHIO
VALLEY IN THE RISING SECTION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR QUITE
AWHILE...MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT
FOR MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPING
AND THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN JUST TO THE WEST WILL THANKFULLY SPARE
THE HEADWATERS OF THE KENTUCKY AND CUMBERLAND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR
CONTINUED COUNTY-WIDE FLOOD PROBLEMS...IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
DEVELOPING PROBLEMS ELSEWHERE AS THE RAIN CONTINUES UNABATED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MENTIONED IN EACH ZONE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER CONCERNS OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. THE LOW AND
ITS HEAVY RAIN WILL PULL EAST EARLY FRIDAY LEAVING LIGHTER POCKETS
OF RAIN BEHIND. HOWEVER...A TEMPORARY RESURGENCE COULD OCCUR IN THE
EVENING OVER THE FAR EAST AS THE 00Z SATURDAY JET STREAK MOVES
OVERHEAD. COLDER AIR WILL THEN POUR INTO THE AREA SWITCHING
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
DUE TO LOW QPF. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY ENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PASSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN...TO THE ONE WE CURRENT ARE ENDURING...
THEN SHOWS ITSELF FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A SOMEWHAT INVERTED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OOZES TOWARD THE AREA WITH MARGINAL THICKNESS
VALUES NECESSITATING AN AMBIGUOUS FORECAST OF A CHANCE OF SNOW OR
RAIN. AS THIS NEW ROUND OF MESSY WEATHER HEADS EAST...WRAP AROUND
WILL CONTINUE THE CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...THOUGH
PROBABLY JUST SNOW...INTO THURSDAY.

MOS TEMPS FROM GFS WERE PREFERRED TONIGHT THE MET AND FWC TOO WARM.
THEY WERE ALL SIMILAR BEYOND THAT AND DID NOT STRAY FAR. AS FOR
POPS...WENT CATEGORICAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE GFS CUTTING OFF
THEIR POPS TOO SOON FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SLOWER 18Z
SOLUTION FROM THE MESOETA. WENT ABOVE THE FWC AND MAV FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH PLENTY
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INITIALLY.

AS FOR IFPS/GFE GRIDS...POPULATED WITH MY USUAL METHOD FROM THE
MESOETA FOR TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH 60 HOURS. HAD TO
TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG OUR MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. ALSO HAD TO ADJUST TEMPS TOWARD CURRENT VALUES AND WENT
WITH A NON DIURNAL PATTERN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS READINGS RISE INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S BY MORNING. THE REST OF THE GRIDS WERE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND HAD TO ADJUST VERY LITTLE.

&&

651 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004

BIGGEST CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS THE ADDITION OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA TO THE FLOOD WATCH RUNNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AT
NOON. INITIAL THOUGHT WAS TO EXPAND EASTWARD ONLY TO
JOHNSON...MAGOFFIN...BREATHITT...PERRY...LESLIE...BELL COUNTY
LINE...BUT SURROUNDING CWA/S ISSUANCES...IN ADDITION TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION QPF TONIGHT...FEEL COVERING
ALL BASES A VERY GOOD IDEA.

BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN QPF FORECAST BTWN GFS AND THE MESOETA APPEARS
TO BE THE PRESENCE OF DOWNSLOPE FORCING THAT IS PROMINENT IN THE
MESOETA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE MESOETA DOES GENERALLY HANDLE
THESE HIGH RES LOW LEVEL FEATURES BETTER THAN THE GFS...FEEL THAT
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IF A BIT SMALL WHEN YOU CONSIDER ANY
UNCERTAINTY...AND DESPITE A HINDRANCE TO QPF IN THE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERN CWA TONIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE QPF STILL WARRANT THE
CONCERN OF EXCESSIVE QPF COME EARLY IN THE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
ESPECIALLY WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THAT ALSO INCLUDE PW WELL OVER
AN INCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS...COMBINED WITH MUCH HIGHER GFS QPF
HAS LED TO A BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE. THIS MESHES WELL WITH HPC
DISCUSSION THIS MORNING AS WELL. GFS ILLUSTRATES A GOOD BAND OF 1.75
TO 3.25 INCHES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...THE
MESOETA 1.5 TO 0.7 INCHES THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...AND THE HPC QPF
ILLUSTRATES THE BLEND AS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN THE EASTERN CWA AND
GREATER THAN 2.5 INCHES IN THE WESTERN CWA THROUGH 18Z ON FRIDAY.
BIGGEST QPF SHOT WILL COME BTWN 00 AND 12Z FRIDAY...WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHEN CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE BEST AS WELL.

HAVE INTRODUCED THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IP OR
FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET AGAIN THIS PACKAGE...LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
TWO ZONES...GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF BREATHITT COUNTY.
DURATION WILL BE VERY SHORT GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDING. FEEL THERE IS
PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE FOR IP AS OPPOSED TO THE FREEZING
RAIN...BUT BOTH ARE INCLUDED. WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP A LITTLE
UNSURE...FELT IT WOULD BEST SERVE EVERYONE TO INCLUDE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THE FROZEN PRECIP...DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE ONSET OF
PRECIP...AND GOOD FROZEN PRECIP ENVIRONMENT ONLY LINE UP FOR A VERY
SHORT TIME...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE.

WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN TONIGHT...BUT LESS SO. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST
LLJ ENERGY IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
WEST...SPARING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
THE BRUNT OF IT/S ENERGY. HOWEVER...THIS STILL WARRANTS WATCHING...

&&

.JKL...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON FRIDAY FOR ENTIRE CWA.

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1208 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLOOD            CORBIN                  36.94N 84.11W
02/05/2004                   WHITLEY            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 26 AND BACON CREEK ROAD STILL CLOSED ALONG WITH TIDAL
            WAVE ROAD NEAR WALDEN. REPORT BY 911 DISPATCH.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1211 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     FLOOD            MANCHESTER              37.15N 83.77W
02/05/2004                   CLAY               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NEARLY 5 INCHES OF WATER OVER MEMORIAL DRIVE UP TO THE
            HOSPITAL IN MANCHESTER. NUMEROUS HIGH WATER REPORTS
            COUNTYWIDE.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
204 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     FLOOD            MONTICELLO              36.84N 84.85W
02/06/2004                   WAYNE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 92 REMAINED CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. HIGH WATER WAS
            OVER NUMBEROUS ROADS COUNTYWIDE. REPORTED BY 911
            DISPATCH.

1238 AM     FLOOD            CORBIN                  36.94N 84.11W
02/06/2004                   WHITLEY            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 26 AND BACON CREEK ROADS REMAINED CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER. IN WALDEN, TIDAL WAVE ROAD REMAINED CLOSED.
            REPORTED BY 911 DISPATCH.

0138 AM     FLOOD            SOMERSET                37.08N 84.61W
02/06/2004                   PULASKI            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER WAS ACROSS SLATE BRANCH ROAD NEAR MANDEIRA,
            EAST RTE 80 AT HWY 1956, AND OFF HWY 769 AT KENNEDY. OVER
            ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THESE ROADS.
            REPORTED BY 911 DISPATCH.

0143 AM     FLOOD            WHITLEY CITY            36.72N 84.48W
02/06/2004                   MCCREARY           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS LOW LYING AREAS WITH STANDING HIGH WATER
            COUNTYWIDE. REPORTED BY 911 DISPATCH.

0141 AM     FLOOD            1 N LONDON              37.14N 84.08W
02/06/2004                   LAUREL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD CLOSED NEAR INTERSECTION OF HWY 638 AND HWY 586.
            MANY LOW WATER CROSSINGS UNDER WATER.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
314 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 AM     FLOOD            MCKEE                   37.43N 83.99W
02/06/2004                   JACKSON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THREE FEET OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS HIGHWAY 89 SOUTH. ROAD
            IS IMPASSABLE. REPORTED BY 911 DISPATCH.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
401 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WISEMANTOWN             37.68N 84.01W
02/06/2004                   ESTILL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            KNOB LICK ROAD AND DARK HOLLOW ROAD WERE CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOWING WATER.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
409 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 AM     FLOOD            WILDIE                  37.42N 84.30W
02/06/2004                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            DISPATCH REPORTED 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER OVER HWY 1786.

&&

HYSELL