Flooding in Kentucky, December 1 to 2, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1143 AM WED DEC 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT HAVE DIED DOWN DRAMATICALLY THIS
MORNING. A FEW LINGERING GUSTS OF AROUND 15 MPH ARE STILL
OCCURRING...SO UPDATED FORECAST FOR FIRST PERIOD TODAY TO REFLECT
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. ALSO...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY DIED OUT
COMPLETELY ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. LATEST GFS AND NGM MOS GUIDANCE GOING
DRY FOR REST OF DAY AND NIGHT. MET MOS ONLY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR REST OF DAY. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR REST OF
TODAY. TEMPS...SKY...AND ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF FORECAST STILL RIGHT
ON TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

625 AM WED DEC 1 2004

10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS RESULTING IN A WINDY
EARLY MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO
50 MPH COVERING EAST KENTUCKY. STRONG CAA IS ANOTHER RESULT OF THE
WINDS AS TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 40S IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. ON RADAR...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE TRAILING THE FRONT AS THEY TRAVERSE EAST KENTUCKY...WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH ROLLING THROUGH OHIO. ON
SATELLITE...THERE ARE EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CROSSING FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THAT WILL QUICKLY FILL WITH LOW CLOUDS AS THE WRAP
AROUND COMES EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
TAKING THE OPENING TROUGH QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ETA IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
AND ALSO STRONGER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ETA THROUGH 48 HOURS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY WHEN A BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA. A MUCH
STRONGER WAVE WILL THEN GEN UP NEAR WINNIPEG AND DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY. THE ETA IS QUICKER AND SHALLOWER
WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL NOT BREAK CONTINUITY
AND STICK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. RIDGING TEMPORARILY FOLLOWS THEN TO
END THE WEEKEND...THOUGH A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH WILL PLACE THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW TO START
THE NEW WORK WEEK MAKING FOR AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MOST FOCUSED FOR THE NEXT SIX OR SO HOURS
WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC IMBALANCE OVER EAST KENTUCKY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
10 AM WITH WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS BLOWING
THROUGH THE COAL FIELDS. THIS CAA WILL MEAN FALLING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE THEY STABILIZE FOR A TIME IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S... PERHAPS RECOVERING SOME LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
CLOUDS START TO BREAK UP. A CLEARING SKY AND DIMINISHING WIND
TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD A DECENT AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH NOT
MUCH OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXPECTED. A RETURN OF
SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A
BETTER NIGHT FOR A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXPECTED INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
AS A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF A SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
THEN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS A
WIDE OPEN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST COMBINE TO SEND MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE BLUE GRASS.

MOS TEMPS FOR TODAY LOOK BEST FROM THE FWC WITH A MINIMAL REBOUND
DEPICTED...THOUGH THEY ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR 12Z TEMPS. FOR
TONIGHT...DIDNT TOTALLY BUY INTO THE RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
INDICATED BY THE MOS NUMBERS...DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP MODERATING THIS BY LOWERING THE RIDGE
TEMPS A BIT AND NUDGING UP THE VALLEYS. MOS VALUES ARE SIMILAR FOR
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...DID NOT DEVIATE FAR...EXCEPT TO OPEN UP
MORE OF A RANGE IN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO MET POPS
THIS MORNING WITH THE WRAP AROUND PCPN...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO MEASURE
...THEN DRY UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE IFPS/GFE GRIDS...REPOPULATED WITH THE MESOETA TEMPS...
WINDS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH 60 HOURS. SPENT A WHOLE LOT OF EFFORT ON
THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST HAVING A LATE IN THE MORNING LOW
AND THEN A PERIOD OF STEADY TEMPS BEFORE A SMALL RECOVERY TOWARD
LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WIND...HAD THEM THE STRONGEST JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH 12Z AND THEN DROPPING OFF SLOWLY TOWARD 15Z...
QUICKER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE EXISTING GRIDS CAPTURED THE
SKY AND POP FORECAST PRETTY WELL...TWEAKED THIS FOR A BIT FASTER
TRANSITION EAST THIS MORNING AND BROUGHT IN MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS
QUICKER. ALSO ADDED POCKETS OF FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FOR THE
WEATHER GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DID NOT SEE MUCH
CHANGE EXCEPT TO SPEED UP THE CLIPPER CLOUDS AND PCPN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

508 PM TUE NOV 30 2004

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KY LATE TODAY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STEADY
RAIN WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW POST-FRONTAL  SHOWERS
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IN OUR FAR EASTERN AND BEST UPSLOPE
FLOW AREAS. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS FROM THE RAIN. AS
OF LATE AFTERNOON URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD STATEMENTS WERE OUT
FOR OUR SW COUNTIES...BUT IF ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT WERE TO BE
NEEDED IT IS LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM TX ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
DECREASING CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER US ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD FALL EASILY. HAVE USED A RIDGE/VALLEY
DIFFERENCE.

THE RIDGE SLIPS TO OUR SE ON THURSDAY AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
HEADS OUR WAY FROM THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A
SMALL AND BRIEF WARM UP. THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO WASH OUT AND LOSE
DEFINITION AS IT ARRIVES...BUT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION
FOR A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP...AND HAVE STAYED BELOW THE 20%
POPS SUGGESTED BY GFS MOS FOR THU NIGHT.

THE GFS PRESENTS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON SATURDAY AS THE TRANSIENT UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD AIR MASS PULL OUT TO THE EAST...AND MILDER AIR
RETURNS FROM THE WEST. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO STILL RATHER STEEP IN
THE COLD AIR MASS. SOUNDINGS LOOK COLD AND WET ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW.
THE GFS DOES GENERATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIP. CONFIDENCE IN MEASURING IS LOW...AND HAVE USED A
30 PERCENT POP.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT US EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS IS LOW...AND HAVE USED A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&

RICHEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1054 AM EST WED DEC 1 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-021200-
BATH-BELL-BREATHITT-CLAY-ELLIOTT-ESTILL-FLEMING-FLOYD-HARLAN-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-KNOTT-KNOX-LAUREL-LEE-LESLIE-LETCHER-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
MCCREARY-MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWSLEY-PERRY-PIKE-POWELL-PULASKI-
ROCKCASTLE-ROWAN-WAYNE-WHITLEY-WOLFE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
1054 AM EST WED DEC 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GREIF/GEOGERIAN