Flooding in Indiana, December 1 to 18, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
937 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO UP POSSIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS IN FAR NWRN FORECAST
AREA /FA/ TO 2 INCHES.

MAIN CONCERN IS DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS FAR NWRN FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD SET UP SOME BANDS OF
HEAVIER SNOW THERE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL N OF FA.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TONIGHT BUT WITH WARM
GROUND AND LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS...CANNOT SEE MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATION ACROSS MOST OF REMAINDER OF FA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPR SYS CURRENTLY OVR THE PLAINS IS XPCTD TO MOV
RAPIDLY THRU THE AREA LT TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LO...PRESENTLY
DVLPG OVR WRN TN...LOOKS TO TAKE A TRACK ACRS THE SERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE THIS EVEN. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYS. FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS/PCPN TONIGHT...AND
TEMPS IN THE LTR PDS.

FOR TONIGHT...RAIN BREAKING OUT ACRS THE AREA THIS AFT SHOULD
INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVEN WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPR SYS. WL CONT WITH HI POPS TONIGHT. PASSAGE OF THE UPPR SYS
IN THE 06Z-12Z WED TIME FRAME SUGGEST PCPN WL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CRITICAL P-TYPE THICKNESSES SUGGEST A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
OVR ABOUT THE WRN HALF OF CWA BEGINNING AROUND 06Z...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF HRS OF SNOWFALL BEFORE PCPN ENDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 1 INCH OF SNOW IN THE FAR NWRN ZONES UNDER
THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE LTL TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. WNDS MAY GET RATHER GUSTY AFT MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
UPPR TROF PASSAGE.

IN THE LTR PDS...APPEARS UPPR SYS WL BE FAR ENOUGH E OF AREA THAT A
WED MORN POP WON/T BE NEEDED. OTRW...THE LTR PDS OF THE SHORT RANGE
LOOK QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SFC RDGG THRU THE TN VLY.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD IN THE 40S TIL TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
CAA KICKS IN. WL BOOST THE NGM MOS LOWS TONIGHT AT BIT...WITH THE
LOWS PROB NOT BEING REACHED TIL AFTER SUNRISE WED. IN THE LTR
PDS...LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 3 DEGS TOO WARM
FOR THE HIGHS ON WED. THE OTHER PDS LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

CS/JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
957 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-011036-
BARTHOLOMEW-BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DAVIESS-DECATUR-
DELAWARE-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-HOWARD-
JACKSON-JENNINGS-JOHNSON-KNOX-LAWRENCE-MADISON-MARION-MARTIN-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-PARKE-PUTNAM-RANDOLPH-RUSH-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-
TIPPECANOE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
957 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

LOWLAND FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WABASH RIVER. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO INCHES...MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES...ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF A LAFAYETTE TO KOKOMO
LINE. AREAS AROUND CRAWFORDSVILLE TO TIPTON MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

SOUTH OF THESE AREAS LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
WABASH RIVER.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE CHANGE OVER VIA TELEPHONE...E SPOTTER OR OUR WEB SITE.