Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 12, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS SQUARELY ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE
SHORT TERM. THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES STILL TO EVOLVE WITH RESPECT TO
EXPECTED CONVECTION AND HOW THAT WILL PLAY INTO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THEREFOR CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEK.

THE DRYLINE HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST
AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND TOWERING CU COULD BE
SEEN AT 20Z ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OK AND NORTH CENTRAL KS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS DRYLINE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST. THE 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED MORE THAN ENOUGH CAPE AVAILABLE
WITH A FAVORABLE SHEER PROFILE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SUGGESTING VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STORMS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TONIGHT.

THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEED BACK BEYOND TONIGHT PRETTY
BADLY...GENERATING AN MCS SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS ALSO AFFECTED ITS SURFACE AND UPPER
AIR PATTERN AND HAVE NOT USED ITS SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THIS. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE ETA MORE CLOSELY WHICH ALSO INDICATES THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT DOES NOT HAVE THE BULLS EYES
OF QPF. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TRENDS TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE ETA SHOWS THE MORE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS
OVER NORTHERN KS MONDAY NIGHT. I HAVE THE POP FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS.

AFTER TUESDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST
AND HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY  THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALSO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE
NEB STATE LINE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES. AFTER WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THINK THE GFS IS SPREADING PRECIP TO FAR NORTH OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 80S...BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS FORECAST GOES THROUGH SEVERAL CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ALSO IF MCS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AS THE
GFS IS SHOWING...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE RISE.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
KSZ010>012-022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

WOLTERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED WORDING IN DAY 2 TRU 7 SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
432 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR.

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-131000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
432 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER IN
DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS OVER 70 MPH AND A FEW LARGE TORNADOES ARE
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 6 PM.  AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND
COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT TIME CREATING FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE RISK FOR WIDE SPREAD FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT IF THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE
SAME AREAS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ACTIVATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NOW.
SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 6 PM OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
902 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     NORTONVILLE             39.41N 95.33W
06/12/2004  70 MPH           JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
904 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HAIL             CLYDE                   39.59N 97.40W
06/12/2004  1.75 INCH        CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
913 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     TSTM WND GST     TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
06/12/2004  74 MPH           SHAWNEE            KS   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            PEAK WIND 36064KT

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
915 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             AURORA                  39.45N 97.53W
06/12/2004  1.25 INCH        CLOUD              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
918 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W VALLEY FALLS        39.34N 95.53W
06/12/2004                   JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIDING BLOWN OFF HOUSE.

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
925 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCLOUTH                 39.20N 95.21W
06/12/2004                   JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES.

&&

DS