Hail in Kansas, June 12, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
427 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY EXPLODED ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST KS IN THE LAST 45 MINUTES.
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
WITH WEAKENING CAP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6KM) IS STILL A BIT MARGINAL
ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 35KT...BUT WINDS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED. MODIFYING OUR
18Z AND POINT RUC FORECAST SOUNDING FOR CURRENT CONDITION ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY STILL YIELD MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG ON IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY IS FAVORABLE FOR STROM ROTATION AND TORNADOGENESIS. LCL
HEIGHTS ARE ALSO LOW SO AS STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AND TORNADO WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY
IF THESE STORMS CAN BECOME JUST A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.

THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY...SO
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR TORNADOES WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT UNLESS
THE STORM MOTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY DEVIANT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH ALL AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
KS...FLOOD WATCH ALL AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
116 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131100-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
116 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL
  UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, ISOLATED TORNADOES, AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 4 PM AND ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
  AFTER 7 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

  THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE UNDER SUNNY SKIES
  OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
  WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATER THIS
  AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS THUNDERSTORMS
  FROM NEAR PARSONS KANSAS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
  OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
  POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
  THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, AN VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
  OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
  INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ACT AS AN ADDITIONAL TRIGGER FOR
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THE STORMS WILL
  THEN OVERSPREAD THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
  TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY LARGE
  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
  POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE, VERY HEAVY RAIN IS
  ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AFTER 5 PM IN SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND AFTER 8 PM ELSEWHERE.

BROWNING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-077>079-088>091-093>096-101>105-130200-
BARRY-BARTON-BOURBON-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-DADE-DOUGLAS-
GREENE-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MCDONALD-NEWTON-OZARK-POLK-STONE-TANEY-VERNON-
WEBSTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...FORT SCOTT...
JOPLIN...MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...SPRINGFIELD AND STOCKTON.
312 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 449...IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

BARRY...BARTON...CEDAR...CHRISTIAN...DADE...DOUGLAS...GREENE...
JASPER...LAWRENCE...MCDONALD...NEWTON...OZARK...POLK...STONE...
TANEY...VERNON AND WEBSTER.

IN KANSAS:

BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE AVA...
BOLIVAR...BRANSON...FORT SCOTT...JOPLIN...MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...
NEOSHO...NEVADA...OZARK...PITTSBURG...SPRINGFIELD AND STOCKTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL MEDIA OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
447 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MC CUNE                 37.35N 95.02W
06/12/2004                   CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

0440 PM     TORNADO          5 W CARL JUNCTION       37.18N 94.66W
06/12/2004                   JASPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

AF