Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 5 to 6, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1010 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MESOSCALE UPDATE

SVR TSTM WATCH OUT FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA TIL 4 AM.  DESPITE CLUSTER
IN NRN OK, WEAK CONVERGENCE AND CAP PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDNL DVLPT.  HOWEVER IN THE LAST COUPLE OF VOLUME SCANS NEW ECHOES
ALF HAVE DVLPD JUST WEST OF ICT...LKLY FM INCRG LLVL JET.  MAIN SHOW
STILL XPCTD WITH THE NOW ROUTINE NIGHTLY MCS CURRENTLY IN NW KS.
ANTICIPATE PREFERRED DVLPMT WL BE IN WRN HALF OF FCST AREA ALG ERN
EDGE OF DEEPER H85 MSTR AND PROXIMITY TO LLVL JET. MORE QUESTIONABLE
HOW STRONG STORMS WL BE FURTHER E.  HOWEVER GIVEN IMPRESSIVE CAPE,
CANNOT RULE OUT SVR TSTMS REGIONWIDE.

HOWERTON

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

550 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004
MESOSCALE UPDATE

EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SCTRL/SE KS INTO NE OK.
MONITORING TO SEE IF ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN TAKE PLACE ALONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT N OF A HUT-EWK LINE. MAY INITIALLY BE LIMITED BY
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE...MAY CHANGE AS EVENING
PROGRESSES AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND LLJ GETS GOING.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  MAIN SHOW EXPECTED TO BE LATE TNGT AS
CONVECTION OVR WRN NE/ERN CO ORGANIZES AND HEADS SE TWRD CTRL KS.

WOLF

------------------------------------------------
240 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...

PREPARING FOR NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL TONIGHT. MOIST, VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA.  INITIAL SHORTWAVE EXITING
THIS AFTERNOON...THINK WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF WAVE MAY INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING (EXCEPT FAR SE KS WHERE
NOT YET BEHIND SHORTWAVE AXIS).  WILL HAVE LOW EVENING POPS IN FAR
SE KS FOR THIS EVENING.  MODELS SHOW GOOD SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/NW KS THIS EVENING...AND SLIDE ESE
ACROSS CTRL KS LATE TNGT ON NOSE OF LLJ...REACHING SE KS TWRD DAWN.
WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT GIVEN LOW FFG VALUES.  INCREASING
POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  MIGHT SEE A HIGH WIND
THREAT WITH CONVECTION LATE TNGT AS SYSTEM DEVELOPS COLD POOL.

CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TO WEAK SW FLOW BY END OF WEEK WITH RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES.  SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER WITH
HIGH TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE 90 DEGREE MARK.  EXPECT MCS TRACK TO BE
MORE OVER NEBRASKA FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WE COULD SEE BOUNDARY MOVE
AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN KS...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR CTRL KS
COUNTIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

WOLF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  82  62  89 /  70  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  83  62  89 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          65  82  62  88 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        66  82  63  87 /  70  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  82  64  88 /  60  60  10  10
RUSSELL         61  83  59  89 /  80  10   5  10
GREAT BEND      63  83  60  89 /  80  10  10  10
SALINA          64  83  61  89 /  80  20   5  10
MCPHERSON       64  83  62  88 /  80  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  82  65  86 /  50  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  82  63  86 /  50  60  20  10
IOLA            69  82  63  86 /  50  60  10  10
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-061200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA.
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE TO THE HIGHER
MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE SITUATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS. SHEAR PROFILES
ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BUT THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE UP FOR IT. STORMS OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS HAVE
SATURATED THE GROUND. SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL GO
INTO RUNOFF AND MAY CAUSE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. STORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THESE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE, SO PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON/KETCHAM