Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 22, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
304 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS EARLY
THIS EVENING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY:
MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING FOR CONVECTION WL BE THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FM SWRN KS ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN KS. IN ADDITION, COLD
FRONT WL BE WORKING SWD INTO CNTRL KS WHICH MAY ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT. MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR ARE MARGINAL,
HOWEVER SBCAPES OF AROUND 2,000 J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH/FRONT AXIS INTO EARLY EVENING IN AREAS EXPERIENCING
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION. COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE T-STORMS WITH WET
MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EARLY ON, WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND IN STORM INTENSITY BY MID-LATE EVE. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
WL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND JUST N OF THE 850 FRONT
ACROSS CNTRL AND PART OF S-CNTRL KS. PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.75 TO 2
INCHES COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE
UPPER JET SHOULD LEAD TO 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CNTRL AND
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KS INTO THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. ONE NEGATIVE
IS THAT THE 850 SOUTHERLY INFLOW IS PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAK.
GIVEN 6 HRLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AT 3 TO 4
INCHES PER 6 HRS, WL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE ATTM.
OTHERWISE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY FOR CNTRL AND SERN KS INTO FRIDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, NERLY WINDS, AND THE RAIN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
DOWN IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ON FRIDAY.

FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY:
WL KEEP CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN FOR S-CNTRL AND SERN KS FRIDAY
NIGHT, SHIFTING CHANCES TO SERN KS BY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT DURG THIS TIME PERIOD, EVEN THOUGH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WL BE GETTING SHUNTED SWD WITH TIME. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE GIVEN CLOUDS AND ERLY FLOW.

SUN-WED:
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT OVER KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS WL BE VERY SLOW TO OCCUR IN THIS
PATTERN. POPS LOOK TOO LOW TO INSERT ATTM, WITH BEST MOISTURE RETURN
FOCUSED UP THRU THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  76  61  76 /  70  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      66  75  61  76 /  80  80  20  10
NEWTON          66  75  61  76 /  70  80  20  10
ELDORADO        67  77  62  76 /  70  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  81  62  76 /  50  80  40  20
RUSSELL         62  72  57  75 /  90  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  73  57  75 /  90  80  10  10
SALINA          65  75  59  76 /  90  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  75  59  76 /  80  80  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  84  63  76 /  30  60  50  40
CHANUTE         69  82  62  76 /  40  60  40  30
IOLA            69  81  62  75 /  50  60  40  20
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

9/CARUSO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-231200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
335 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE AREAS GREATEST
AT RISK WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A KINGMAN TO NEWTON, TO FLORENCE
LINE. THE TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT,
THE LONG DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

CJ/JMC