Flash Flood and Hail in Kansas, July 22, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT THU JUL 22 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE BY
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL HELP OUT WITH PRECIPITATION AS
WELL...WITH 500 MB WAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET. GFS
SUFFERING FROM A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK QPF BULLSEYE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT...AND ROBS MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN ZONES.
ETA/WRF/RUC LOOK MORE REALISTIC FOR AN UPSLOPE EVENT...AND
CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED ALL ZONES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL LINGER
IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS UPSLOPE CONTINUES...TAPERING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL UNDER AN
OVERCAST SKY AND NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...COULD EVEN SEE SOME
RECORD LOW HIGHS...AND WILL UNDERCUT THE MAV BY ABOUT 5F (CLOSE TO
MET AND UKMET GUIDANCE). CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND COME TO AN END BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT PER MAV POPS.

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE PUSHED AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
INTENSITY/COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE/LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MET/MAV IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HIGHS AND NO PLANS TO
DEVIATE.

SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. NONETHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE/CHEYENNE RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS FURTHER EAST THAN SATURDAY...AKRON TO
LA JUNTA...AND STORMS SHOULD MAKE BETTER HEADWAY INTO
KANSAS/NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN...SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...MAINLY OVER COLORADO...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
EASTWARD THROWS INTO DOUBT IF INTENSITY CAN BE SUSTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
TROUGH WHICH WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE KICKED OUT BY DISTURBANCE EJECTING INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE MID WEEK. FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND...AND IN GENERAL WILL
BE UNDERCUTTING MEX GUIDANCE.

CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXIS WILL BEGIN THE WEEK OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...AND MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST EACH DAY IN A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME. CANADIAN DISTURBANCE WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THUS...WILL HAVE
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS IN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON AND KANSAS/NEBRASKA
IN THE EVENING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON AREAL
COVERAGE BY MID WEEK TO COINCIDE WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXIS
MOVEMENT. CHANCE POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET AND 700 MB VORT MAX SLIDE ACROSS
COLORADO. CHANCE POPS MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THURSDAY...BUT TIMING OF
THE FRONT DIFFICULT AT THIS RANGE...SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

JDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT THU JUL 22 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1040 AM MDT THU JUL 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE RECENT
RAIN HAS LEFT THE GROUND NEARLY SATURATED IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE LEAST OVER THE HILL CITY AREA. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MWM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT THU JUL 22 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001-013-027-041-NEZ079-230000-
CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY-GREELEY-KIT CARSON-SHERMAN-WALLACE-
YUMA-
150 PM MDT (250 PM CDT) THU JUL 22 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 666 FOR
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA UNTIL 6 PM MDT (7 PM CDT).

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH:

IN EASTERN COLORADO...YUMA...KIT CARSON...CHEYENNE.

IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...DUNDY.

IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...CHEYENNE...SHERMAN...WALLACE...AND GREELEY.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

HAIL TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING
IS ISSUED...TAKE ACTION IMMEDIATELY.

JOHNSON