Winter Storm in Kansas, February 1, 2004

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
754 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBS AND REPORTS SHOW MOST OF AREA STILL
SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING WITH SEEDING FROM ALOFT JUST
STARTING TO MOVE INTO FA.  BASED OFF THIS EXPANDED COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS AREA FOR REST OF TONIGHT.  NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...TONIGHT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY. BASED ON 12Z GFS
RUN...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP SNOW AMOUNTS AND MENTION A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COUNTIES PREVIOUSLY IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ROOKS TO THE WARNING
MIX AS WELL. REST OF CWA WILL BE UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS GFS AND UKMET. UPSHOT IS THAT WE HAVE
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF TRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
FURTHER...18Z MESOETA IS ALSO TRENDING IN THE GFSS DIRECTION.

UVVS AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...WITH MAIN GUTS OF SYSTEM COMING OUT SUNDAY. USING THE -3
TO -5C 850MB TEMP ZONE AS A GUIDE...THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR
TO OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GID AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME FOR THE
U/A SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT
THAT 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ON AVERAGE...THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A
TOTAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. LITTLE ELSE WILL CHANGE
WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. EXITING WINTER SYSTEM MONDAY WITH
RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT EASTWARD...WITH GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION
BEHIND AND LIKELY CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR EARLY
MORNING TUE. REPRIEVE FROM SNOW FOR A DAY ON TUE BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM
LIFTS ITS WAY OUT OF SRWN US IN OVERALL DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVR
CONUS. ORIENTATION OF UPR AND SFC LOWS WITH WED TO FRI SYSTEM WOULD
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR EVEN BETTER CHANCES THAN THIS SUNDAY FOR HEAVY
SNOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INSTEAD OF JUST OUR SRN/ERN
ZONES. HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW DRAMA UNFOLDS AT THIS POINT...BUT
SNOW IN GENERAL SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BET...SO HAVE PAINTED THAT
PICTURE FOR THE ENTIRE FA. BEYOND...IF TIMING HOLDS THEN FRI WILL BE
DRY BUT CONTINUED ON THE COLD SIDE...WHILE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
OUT OF THE NW CONUS DOWN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONTINUED LONGWAVE
TROF. LOOKS LIKE THE GROUNDHOG WILL BE LYING TO US AROUND HERE
ANYWAY.
&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING
REPLACING THE ADVISORY FOR THAYER COUNTY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING REPLACING THE
ADVISORY FOR JEWELL...MITCHELL...OSBORNE...AND ROOKS COUNTIES SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

AWJ/16/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
230 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-011300-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
230 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FALLING WEST OF A CENTRAL CITY TO
AURORA TO NELSON NEBRASKA LINE...AND WEST OF A MANKATO TO BELOIT
LINE IN KANSAS...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL FRONT BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. BY THIS EVENING...HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE FALLING NORTH OF A YORK TO BEAVER CITY
LINE IN NEBRASKA...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE LOOKOUT
AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH AREAS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL...1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. AS BOTH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS COME TOGETHER...A HEAVY REGION OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF A HEBRON NEBRASKA...TO STOCKTON KANSAS
LINE...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE.

SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR OVER THAYER
COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND JEWELL...OSBORNE...MITCHELL
AND ROOKS COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY TO THE NORTH OF A
GENEVA NEBRASKA TO STOCKTON KANSAS LINE WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...GIVING 2 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE...A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL
BE IN EFFECT...WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MIDWEEK...APPEARING AT THIS TIME TO BE RATHER POTENT AND WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE TRACK AND THEREFORE IMPACT ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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