Flash Flooding in Indiana, June 16, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EST THU JUN 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...WHETHER TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH AND TIMING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE MAIN PROBLEM OF THE DAY.

WITH ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE LITTLE MORE THAN A HALF INCH SEE
NO REASON TO DROP WATCH EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DRIER THIS
RUN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY EXITED OUR CWA...BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING OVER AT LEAST OUR NW ZONES TODAY AS WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK H5
VORT LOBE CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TODAY SO WILL KEEP POPS IN
LIKELY CATEGORY THERE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS BRING WEAK CD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT.  MESOETA SHOWS
CONVECTION THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST WHILE OTHER MODELS
DRY TONIGHT. WILL TREND TOWARDS MESOETA GIVEN ITS BETTER TRACK
RECORD IN SHORT TERM.

AFTER TONIGHT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE IFFY AS THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. MODELS STALL WEAK FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WHILE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY BY
SATURDAY.  WILL LEAN TOWARDS ETA SCENARIO WHICH IS SLOWER WITH 2ND
COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN 2/3
OF OUR AREA SATURDAY AND DRY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

NEW GFS AND MRF ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THEY INDICATED
YESTERDAY FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  I AM SURE IF IT WILL
BE THAT COOL...BUT WILL TREND A LITTLE IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH TODAY ENTIRE CWA.

&&

JEH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
927 AM EST WED JUN 16 2004

INZ060>065-067>072-171100-
BARTHOLOMEW-BROWN-DAVIESS-DECATUR-GREENE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-KNOX-
LAWRENCE-MARTIN-MONROE-SULLIVAN-
927 AM EST WED JUN 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL
CAUSE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AND MINOR FLOODING THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, BY MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 1 PM...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TORNADOES AND DIME SIZE HAIL.  THE THREAT
AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER
TODAY.

HOWEVER, REMEMBER THAT ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS. FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST DANGER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY.  THEN
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND DRY
WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS. SEE THE LATEST
RIVER FORECAST FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE DANGER FROM FLOODING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT.

&&
MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT OUR WEBSITE...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IND

CO