Tornadoes and Flash Flood in Colorado, June 16, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
358 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2004

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

MANY CHALLENGES THIS FCST PACKAGE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD
FRONT.  MSAS PRESSURE CHANGE CHARTS SHOWING AREA OF PRESSURE RISES
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST CO ATTM...THOUGH PRESSURE RISES SEEM TO BE
WEAKENING WITH TIME.  THUS...DONT THINK FRONT WILL SURGE IN QUITE
AS STRONG OR AS EARLY THIS MORNING AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  MAIN COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT IS STILL BACK OVER WY...WHILE NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS A
RESULT OF LAST NIGHTS MCS ACROSS KS...AND SOME SCATTERED MORNING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN INSENTROPIC LIFT REGION ALONG NOSE OF 35KT
LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS KIOWA...BENT...AND PROWERS COUNTIES. (LOW LVL
JET SHOWS UP NICELY IN GRANADA PROFILER).

SO FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE SLOWER IN BRINGING FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN MORE TOWARDS 18Z-21Z.  MESO-ETA
SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ACROSS SE CO...EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT...IN THE LATE AFTN.  THIS SHOULD YIELD SB CAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG.  0-6KM SHEARS ARE STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...
WITH VALUES OF 45-55 KTS BY AFTN.  ETA BUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
CAP...AND WITH SHORTWAVE ACROSS NW NM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS PARENT UPPER TROF ACROSS AZ/UT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...
WILL HAVE SOME SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP WITH TSTORM INITIATION
AS WELL. ALL THIS POINTS TO AN EARLY START TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO ANOTHER MCS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS LATER TONIGHT.  LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
CAPE IN SOUNDINGS...AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (FOR LOW
LCLS)...AND PLENTY OF SHEAR...SHOULD BE PRETTY HIGH THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS TODAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.  HAVE PUT MENTION OF SEVERE INTO THE ZONES.  MAIN TORNADO
THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS BACA COUNTY.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS AFTER NOON TO 1 PM.

OUT WEST...WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR THIS AREA.  DEW POINTS SHOULD CREEP
UP SOME THIS AFTN...BUT LARGE PORTIONS OF SOUNDINGS ARE STILL QUITE
DRY.  GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  DRY
LIGHTNING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

COLD FRONT WILL THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SE CO DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
EASTERN AREAS. HAVE MADE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GRIDS TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO FOR TODAY.  ALSO WARMED UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES...AND HAVE TRIED TO EMPHASIZE HIGHER
POPS FOR PIKES PEAK REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS TONIGHT WHERE MCS SHOULD GET GOING.

THANKS TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORD.

-KT

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY)

...LOTS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEEK AHEAD...

A TEXTBOOK SEVERE WEATHER SCENERIO HAS PRETTY MUCH SET UP OVER THE
PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO. TROUGH OVER THE N INTERMTN REGION
CONTINUES TO ALLOW MOIST SURGES TO SWING DOWN ACROSS THE HI PLAINS.
ONE OF THESE SURGES IS COMING DOWN TODAY (SEE ABOVE) AND THIS WILL
SET US UP FOR A CLASSIC DOSWELLIAN DAY-2 TYPE SVR PATTERN FOR THE
SE PLAINS ON THU. I ANTICIPATE A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
A TOR OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR (40KNTS)
AND CAPE (1500 J/KG) PRGGED OVER THE REGION.

FOR THE MOST PART...THIS PATTERN IS FCST TO REMAIN WITH US THROUGH
AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE AND MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD FOR
ALL OF THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND

THE HIER TRRN WILL SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP...
HOWEVER SCTD ACTIVITY IS LIKELY GIVEN WEAK RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW.
WITH THINGS STILL QUITE DRY...ANY DRY LTG WILL BE A THREAT FOR
WILDFIRE STARTS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR...I.E., NO STRONG SUSTAINED SYNOPTIC WINDS.
/HODANISH

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO ISSUER NAME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1200 PM MDT TUE JUN 15 2004

COZ058>089-093>099-152102-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7500 FT-CROWLEY COUNTY-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN 7500
AND 11000 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
1200 PM MDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL GREATER THAN 3/4 OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WHEN THE
ATMOSPHERE IS THE MOST UNSTABLE...STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EAST OF
A LINE FROM LA JUNTA TO TRINIDAD BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A WEATHER PATTERN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY
EVERY DAY. GIVEN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR...A FEW OF THE
STORMS DURING THE PERIOD MAY BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY AFTER 200 PM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

FORTUNE