Hail and Damaging Wind in Illinois, October 18, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WILL NEED TO BE AS BRIEF AS POSSIBLE DUE TO ONGOING WEATHER
SITUATION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH PRECIP CHANCES...SVR
WEATHER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SFC FEATURES.
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. MAIN FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY TODAY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...ESP ACROSS SW IN AND SOUTHEAST IL. COULD BE SOME ISOLD SVR
STORMS TODAY...BUT REALLY THINK THE BEST CHC OF ORGANIZED SVR STORMS
WILL COME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE SFC COLD FRONT/DRY LINE OUT IN SE MO AND CNTRL ARKANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. AS PER SPC DISCO...THESE STORMS MAY ACTUALLY FORM AN
MCS TYPE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO WRN KY AND SW IN.

SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER WRN KY
LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING..ESP IF WE GET GOOD HEATING
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. UPPER FORCING IS NOT GREAT...BUT
STRONG INSTABILITY...LIFT FROM SFC FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF
FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO POP AFTERNOON STORMS SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY.

FOR WED...MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH GFS PUSHING THE SFC FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES...WHILE THE ETA HANGS THE FRONT
OVER OUR AREA. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...REALLY THINK THE ETA
SOLN LOOKS BEST...BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN REALLY GOOD WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTS FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS...SO WILL GO
WITH A COMPROMISE HERE AND TAKE THE FRONT INTO TN. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD DRY US OUT A BIT IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME. WILL NOT MAKE MUCH
CHANGE AFTER THAT TO THE EXTENDED...BUT IF NEW GFS IS CORRECT...THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. UPPER FORCING
AND MOISTURE RETURN SUGGEST SQUALL LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WILL GO ABOVE NGM/MAV MOS NUMBERS
TONIGHT DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS. WILL GO CLOSER ETA MOS.
WILL ALSO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ETA AND MAV MOS TEMPS ON WED
TIME FRAME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SFC FRONTAL POSITION. MODELS ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

MEFFERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
436 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-191000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAPE GIRARDEAU MO...CARBONDALE IL...
GREENVILLE MO...HARRISBURG IL...HENDERSON KY...HOPKINSVILLE KY...
MAYFIELD KY...MOUNT VERNON IL...MURRAY KY...NEW MADRID MO...
OWENSBORO KY...PADUCAH KY...PETERSBURG IN...
POPLAR BLUFF MO AND PRINCETON IN
436 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS...EAST OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH EACH ROUND
OF STORMS IN A GIVEN AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY...TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
919 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 S CHARLESTON          36.86N 89.34W
10/18/2004  60 MPH           MISSISSIPPI        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 105 BETWEEN EAST PRAIRIE AND
            CHARLESTON.

&&