Ice Storm in Georgia, January 26 to 27, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EST MON JAN 26 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORIES. WILL KEEP
CURRENT ADV AS IS XCPT REMOVING MACON COUNTY. MDLS AGREEING THAT
AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT FZRA TO MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE UPSTATE
TO THE CLT METRO AREA. HOWEVER CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE QPF
TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH OR DAMAGING
LEVELS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT ACCRETIONS THO. NRN AND WRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FZRA...BUT FZDZ WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT THERE. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS
OF GRAHAM...SWAIN AND MACON SO NO ADV THERE. MAIN THREAT FOR THE
REST OF THE MTNS REMAINS THE VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

DAMMING HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON TUE WHEN EVEN THE
ETA SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THRU. MDLS DIFFER ON EFFECTS OF THE
NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU TUE. HAVE ADDED CHC POP TUE MORN.
RIGHT NOW THINK AFFECTS WILL BE MINIMAL BUT COULD HAVE A CONTINUED
THREAT OF LIGHT FZRA/DZ. MID SHIFT WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHETHER
ANY ADV EXTENSION IS NEEDED. I-40 CORRIDOR WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION IF NECESSARY.

NW FLOW SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXISTS...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY. LEFT POP AT CHC FOR NOW. WINDS PICKUP ACROSS THIS AREA
TUE NITE INTO WED. FCST RIGHT NOW HAS ADV LEVEL WINDS. WILL ISSUE
SPS TO COVER THIS THREAT. COLD TEMPS INTO THU AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN POPS FOR SATURDAY-MONDAY AS IT
LOOKS MORE PROBABLE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
CWFA THIS PERIOD. CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE STILL FAVOR A BLEND OF
THE MORE NORTHERN 00Z/06Z GFS VERSUS MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF WITH
RESPECT TO LOW TRACK.

THERE STILL COULD BE A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF A LIGHT MIXED PCPN
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LVL S/WV ROTATES ACRS AND CRITICAL
LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES MOVE NORTH ACRS THE CWFA. BUT DURING
THE BULK OF THE EVENT...GENERALLY CENTERED ON THE LATER SUNDAY
PERIOD...IF ONE PERFECT PROGS THE GFS LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH IS PROBABLY NOT THE WAY TO GO...IT WOULD INDICATE
WINTRY PCPN CHANCES LIMITED TO JUST A FREEZING RAIN THREAT ACRS MY
NORTHERN TIER.

HOWEVER...MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS A STRONGER AND MORE
SOUTHERN EXPANSE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S....ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT...HEADING INTO MONDAY...WHICH WOULD
GIVE RISE TO A GREATER CHC AND COVERAGE OF WINTRY WEATHER. WILL STICK
WITH THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT AND CONTINUE TO MENTION
MIXED CHCS ACRS MY NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS...TAKING A BLEND OF
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP 28 38 22 46 / 60 30 10 00
AND 29 41 22 47 / 60 30 10 00
CLT 28 35 23 46 / 80 40 10 00
HKY 26 36 23 44 / 60 40 10 00
AVL 31 39 20 39 / 20 30 10 00
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY NCZ033>037-
048>050-052>057-059-063>072-082.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY SCZ001>014-019.
&&

RWH/VAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-261300-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
548 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...AND PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TODAY. A WINTER
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ALL OF
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...UNTIL 6
PM. ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE ARE EXPECTED
TO KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE
THE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE (WSWGSP) ISSUED AT 416 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE TENNESSEE
BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EST MON JAN 26 2004

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-271000-
AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-GRAHAM NC-HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-MACON NC-
MADISON NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-YANCEY NC-
336 PM EST MON JAN 26 2004

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A WIND
ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

RWH