Storm Surge in Florida, September 15, 2004

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
935 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...BANDS FROM THE OUTER FRINGES OF HURRICANE
IVAN ARE MOVING THROUGH OUR COASTAL WATERS WITH GOOD ROTATION
OCCURRING IN THE STORMS JUST BEYOND 60NM. OVER LAND THERE ARE CLOUDY
SKIES BUT NO CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SHOULD THIS ROTATE AROUND TO
OVER US...IT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING AND COULD SPARK SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE BANDS. NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH SCATTERED INLAND LOOKS GOOD SO NO UPDATES
PLANNED. LATEST SOUNDING STILL SHOWING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
PWATS OF 2.26 AND SE WINDS AT THE SFC BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND
MUCH FASTER WITH HEIGHT. GOOD HELICITY AND CAPE VALUES MEAN THAT
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE COULD HAVE SOME TORNADIC CELLS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SHOWING 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS ON WELL-
OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE ABOVE 15 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE BAY ARE IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH 2-3 FOOT WAVES. FEW CHANGES FOR UPDATE
AS CURRENT FORECAST DOING WELL.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING LEVY COUNTY.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO YANKEETOWN OUT TO 60 NM.
 SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TAMPA BAY.
 HIGH SURF ADVISORY TODAY BONITA BEACH TO YANKEETOWN.
 COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALL COASTAL COUNTIES NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD
 EXCEPT LEVY.

&&

JLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
548 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-151900-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
548 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. ITS OUTER FRINGES WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREAS WEATHER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS
LATEST TRACK IS APPROXIMATELY 350 MILES WEST OF THE AREAS COAST LINE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LEVY COUNTY AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN WILL PRODUCE BANDS OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS MAY PRODUCE ROTATION IN SOME STRONGER
CELLS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES. WITH A LARGE SLOW
MOVING HURRICANE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AREA TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND 2 TO 4 FEET
TONIGHT. IVAN IS ALSO GENERATING LARGE SWELLS OF OVER 15 FEET THAT
WILL BRING HIGH SURF AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES TO AREA BEACHES
CREATING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

SEA GOING VESSELS...SUCH AS BARGES AND FREIGHTERS...MAY WANT TO
VENTURE WELL OUT TO SEA. STORM FORCE WINDS MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO MOORED
VESSELS. OWNERS OF SMALL BOATS SHOULD MOVE THEM TO SAFETY
IMMEDIATELY.

A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL
EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES
AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND
NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH
ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE RIP
CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO LET THE
RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE FORCE
WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM THE
CURRENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE IVAN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS SUCH AS CEDAR KEY...WHICH COULD SEE AND MUCH AS 4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.

AREA WEATHER WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)