Damaging Wind in Florida, June 19, 2004

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE HAS MOVED OVER OUR ZONES AND SHOULD
REMAIN HERE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.  FRONTAL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY
FLOW SO WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RESULT AND THE WESTERN ZONES WILL
BE DRIER.  BEYOND THIS TIME THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL TEND
TO CONTROL THE MAIN FLOW AND PRODUCE SOME UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE NEXT EASTERLY WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC WHICH WILL BE DUE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.  SO AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WE
MIGHT HAVE A SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION DAY.  PRIOR TO THE
WAVES ARRIVAL THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE BACK NORTH OF OUR ZONES
AND MOVE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION BACK TO THE WESTERN ZONES. THE
WAVE ITSELF SHOULD INCREASE PROBABILITIES THROUGHOUT OUR AREA.  AS
WE CONTINUE THROUGH TO NEXT WEEKEND WE SHOULD BE BACK TO A PATTERN
THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE PRESENT ONE.  THAT IS A FRONTAL TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH AND SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR ZONES AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON RAIN HAVING SWITCHED BACK TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
&&

.MARINE...THE WAVE MIGHT PICK UP THE WINDS AND SEAS SOME MID-WEEK
OTHERWISE NO REAL BOATING PROBLEMS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 91 76 91 / 20 40 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 78 90 / 10 40 20 40
MIAMI           80 91 78 91 / 10 40 20 40
NAPLES          77 90 77 90 / 00 20 05 20
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
531 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-192200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
531 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...MODERATE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES AGAIN TODAY...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. THIS SHOULD FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MORE IN
THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST AREAS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST IN THE MORNINGS THROUGH MID
DAY...ALTHOUGH THE SEA BREEZE COULD CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
SLOW MOVEMENT AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.