Funnel Cloud in Florida, June 19, 2004

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2004

.UPDATE...SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INDICATING A BIT
OF AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...AS EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE BATCH OF DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ARRIVED EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WINDS HAVE GONE VERY LIGHT.
ALREADY...SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY BUT
ARE NOT AMOUNTING TO A WHOLE LOT SINCE THE SUN HAS NOT HAD ENOUGH
TIME TO REALLY HEAT THINGS UP. WILL LIKELY SEE MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES AS WELL AS PALM
BEACH COUNTY...AND MAYBE NORTHEAST BROWARD. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK
ON TRACK BUT WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO FRESHEN WORDING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
ATTM. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY AND THEN
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY. HAVE ACCEPTED THE GFS SOLUTION ON MEAN
FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS. GFS MOS WAS TOO LOW ON POPS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE ETA MOS SOLUTION. THE MEAN
FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK TODAY BUT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. ON
SUNDAY...THE FLOW INCREASES A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND REACHES ITS
PEAK ON MONDAY AT AROUND 9 KNOTS. THIS MEANS THE FOCUS ON POPS WILL
BE INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND INTERIOR AND EAST COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA BEGINNING
ON WEDNESDAY AND THE FOCUS ON PRECIP WILL BE BACK TO THE INTERIOR
AND WEST. PWATS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM DAY TO DAY WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.9. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TODAY.
&&

.MARINE...NO MARINE PROBLEMS EXPECTED AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK OVER THE WEEKEND. AS SURFACE RIDGE RETURNS NEXT WEEK WINDS
SHOULD GO BACK TO A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 77 91 76 / 40 40 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 79 90 77 / 30 30 40 40
MIAMI           91 78 91 77 / 20 20 40 40
NAPLES          90 75 89 76 / 20 20 20 20
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
531 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-192200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
531 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...MODERATE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES AGAIN TODAY...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. THIS SHOULD FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MORE IN
THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST AREAS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST IN THE MORNINGS THROUGH MID
DAY...ALTHOUGH THE SEA BREEZE COULD CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
SLOW MOVEMENT AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.