Hail in Florida, July 11, 2004

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
135 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...A TUTT LIKE FEATURE
TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA AS A H5 CENTER MOVES ALONG THE GULF
COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH
FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A
MOIST/ PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.8-2.2 IN/ NORTHERLY...BUT BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY...MID AND UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH FL TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN SOME
OVER SOUTH FL OR THE STRAITS THROUGH TUE AS A SURFACE BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF...PROVIDING A GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE CWFA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL KEEP POPS SCATTERED IN
THE RANGE OF 40 TO 50 % WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE BEGINNING TIME
FROM AFTERNOON TO LATE MORNING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH REACHING NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AND THEN BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS WILL SETUP A DEEP WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF MOIST AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DECENT
RAINFALL ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT APPEARS THAT BEST
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS
AT THIS TIME.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUMS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO
WINDS OFF GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS NO PROBLEMS AS SOME WHAT
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT 10KTS OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TPA 77 89 77 89 / 30 50 30 50
FMY 74 90 74 91 / 30 50 30 50
GIF 75 92 75 92 / 20 50 30 50
SRQ 75 89 75 89 / 30 40 20 40
BKV 73 90 73 90 / 30 50 30 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM RKR
LONG TERM  PRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
532 AM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-111600-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
532 AM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
TREES...POWER LINES...AND POORLY CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS WILL BE MOST
AT RISK.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  SOME MAY BECOME STRONG.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
547 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FLZ039-112230-
LEVY-
547 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LEVY COUNTY...

...THESE STORMS WILL MOVE LITTLE...AND WILL AFFECT RURAL CENTRAL
LEVY COUNTY EAST OF OTTER CREEK SOUTHEAST TO LEBANON...UNTIL 630 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE
PEA SIZE HAIL. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SHARP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
553 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     WATER SPOUT      2 E PORT CHARLOTTE      26.98N 82.07W
07/11/2004                   CHARLOTTE          FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WATERSPOUT REPORTED BY CHARLOTTE COUNTY FIRE DEPARTMENT
            OVER THE MOUTH OF THE PEACE RIVER IN NORTHERN CHARLOTTE
            HARBOR...BETWEEN I-75 AND US 41.

0542 PM     HAIL             1 E PORT CHARLOTTE      26.98N 82.08W
07/11/2004  1.00 INCH        CHARLOTTE          FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF THE PEACE RIVER
            AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY.

&&

AWIPSUSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED FOR NAME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
555 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     WATER SPOUT      2 E PORT CHARLOTTE      26.98N 82.07W
07/11/2004                   CHARLOTTE          FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WATERSPOUT REPORTED BY CHARLOTTE COUNTY FIRE DEPARTMENT
            OVER THE MOUTH OF THE PEACE RIVER IN NORTHERN CHARLOTTE
            HARBOR...BETWEEN I-75 AND US 41.

0542 PM     HAIL             1 E PORT CHARLOTTE      26.98N 82.08W
07/11/2004  1.00 INCH        CHARLOTTE          FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF THE PEACE RIVER
            AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY.

&&

RFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
555 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FLZ051-055-112245-
HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
555 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT EASTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH AND
MANATEE COUNTIES...

...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT EASTERN
AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH AND MANATEE COUNTIES...UNTIL 645 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
602 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FLZ039-112230-
LEVY-
602 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LEVY COUNTY...

...THESE STORMS WILL MOVE LITTLE...AND WILL ARE ALONG A LINE FROM
CHIEFLAND SOUTHEAST TO LEBANON...UNTIL 630 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO
50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE
LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SHARP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
615 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FLZ051-055-112245-
HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
615 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH AND
NORTHERN MANATEE COUNTIES...

...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH...WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH AND NORTHERN MANATEE COUNTIES...UNTIL
645 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RJS