Flood in Delaware, November 28, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

OVERRUNNING RAIN GETTING EARLY START ACROSS THE CFA WHICH IS FASTER
THAN MDLS BY 4-6 HRS. PCPN IS LIGHT ATTM BUT WILL BE INCREASING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE FROM ACROSS THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY
FROM PORTS DATA AND AND ADVECT INTO REGION. 88-D VWP SHOWS 1000 FT
WINDS NOW ESE AT 25-30 KT. HAVENT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES YET
BUT K VALUES ARE AT 29 WHICH IS ABV THRESHOLD FOR CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FCST IS SAME.

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

EBERWINE

****************

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH AND OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BECOME OVERCAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

A RATHER ROBUST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED,
SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED US ON THURSDAY.  THAT IS WHERE
THE SIMILARITIES END.

UNLIKE THURSDAYS SYSTEM OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A
SOLID SHOT OF RAIN, PERHAPS AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF, AT MOST
LOCATIONS.  A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY MORNING, A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE
LAST SYSTEM.

EVEN THOUGH THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
STABLE NEAR THE SURFACE THAN THAT OF THE OTHER DAY, WERE CONCERNED
THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL ACT TO DRAG DOWN SOME SUBSTANTIAL WIND
GUSTS EARLY ON SUNDAY.  AS A RESULT, WEVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NOT SO MUCH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BUT FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE ON SUNDAY WITH
RAPID CLEARING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED REGARDING THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW.  AN
ADDITIONAL STATEMENT REGARDING THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FORTHCOMING.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
FOR THE NEW WEEK WE HAVENT CHANGED MUCH IN THE FORECAST.  WERE
STILL EXPECTING A SYSTEM TO COME THROUGH OUR REGION AT MID WEEK WITH
RAIN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS A BIT OF A MIX WELL INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS
EVENING.  LOWER DECK (CIGS AROUND 5K FEET) SEEN ADVANCING NORTHWARD
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES WILL ARRIVE OVER TAF SITES IN THE 19Z TO
21Z TIME FRAME.  I DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
FOR MOST TAF SITES AS TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.  STRONG WIND FIELDS IN THE
2000-5000 FOOT AGL LEVELS PROMPTED ME TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR AT ALL
SITES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  THE MAGNITUDE WINDS AT THE
2000 FT LEVEL ARE STRONGEST SUNDAY MORNING AT THE SOUTHERN SITES BUT
THE PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES EARLIER AT THE NORTHERN SITES.
WS GROUPS ADDED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION DECIDED TO RAISE GALES FOR ALL OUR MARINE
ZONES FOR LATER TONIGHT.  WINDS STEADILY INCREASE WELL INTO SCA
RANGE THIS EVENING AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF
GUSTINESS THAT WILL OCCUR.  LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE
IN THE 2K FOOT LEVEL TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MIX SOME OF THIS HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR DOWNWARD SO FELT RAISING GALES TO COVER THE FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS WAS THE WAY TO GO.  WINDS WHIP AROUND TO SW THEN W
TOMORROW AS LOW LIFTS UP THE COAST.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS
THE LOW MOVES BY THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING PAZ054-055-
      060>062-067>071.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING NJZ001-
      007>010-012>027.
DE...WIND ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING DEZ001-004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING MDZ008-012-
      015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE AND FOR
          DELAWARE BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION/MARINE...OHARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
433 AM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-271000-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...ATLANTIC CITY...BETHLEHEM...
CAMDEN...DOVER...NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...
PHILADELPHIA...READING...TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
433 AM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND NEW
JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER LOCATIONS NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME, WE CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM MIGHT MIX DOWN STRONG
WINDS AND CAUSE LOCALIZED DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MPD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1118 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

DEZ002>004-NJZ013-014-020>027-281030-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE-
OCEAN NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC CITY...DOVER AND VINELAND
1118 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

CORRECTED

...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
MORNING PRIMARILY IN THE BACK BAYS...

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND THAT WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT
TIMES. THESE STRONG WINDS, AND THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES CAUSED BY THE FULL MOON WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO
REACH ABOUT ONE TO ONE AND A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.

THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM SUNDAY ALONG THE
OCEAN FRONT AND LATER IN THE BACK BAYS. IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAINFALL
OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES COULD OCCUR. IF IT DOES SO AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE, SOME ADDITIONAL STREET FLOODING IS LIKELY WHICH
MAY FLOOD SOME OF THE ROADS LEADING TO AND FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS,
AND ON THE ISLANDS THEMSELVES.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH.

REMEMBER TO MOVE YOUR VEHICLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
MORNING, AND DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS.

DEZ001-NJZ016>018-PAZ070-071-281030-
CAMDEN NJ-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-PHILADELPHIA PA-
SALEM NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...NEWARK...
PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON
1118 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

CORRECTED

...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
SUNDAY...

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND THAT WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT
TIMES SUNDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS, AND THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CAUSED BY THE FULL MOON, WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL
DEPARTURES TO REACH ABOUT ONE TO ONE AND A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY FOR THE THE HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM.

IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES COULD
OCCUR. IF IT DOES SO AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, SOME STREET FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA WHERE THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES EMPTY INTO
THE DELAWARE RIVER.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH.

REMEMBER TO MOVE YOUR VEHICLE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
MORNING, AND DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS.

CORRECTED FOR INCOMPLETE SENTENCE IN FIRST SEGMENT AND MINOR WORDING
CHANGES BOTH SEGMENTS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST SUN NOV 28 2004

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>018-PAZ060-067-068-070-071-281100-
BERKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-
MONTGOMERY PA-NEW CASTLE DE-PHILADELPHIA PA-SALEM NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...NEWARK...PHILADELPHIA...
READING AND WILMINGTON
348 AM EST SUN NOV 28 2004

...A LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY THROUGH 600 AM...

A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTH AT 30 MILES AN HOUR THROUGH NEW
CASTLE COUNTY DELAWARE AND CHESTER COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES NORTH, IT COULD GENERATE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MILES AN HOUR IN EXTREME NORTHERN DELAWARE INCLUDING THE
WILMINGTON AREA, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INCLUDING IN AND AROUND
PHILADELPHIA AS WELL AS NEAR READING, AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD WATCH FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN HEAVY SHOWERS
AS THIS LINE PASSES THROUGH. MOTORISTS SHOULD WATCH FOR SUDDENLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.