Winter Storm in Colorado, November 1, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
317 PM MST SUN OCT 31 2004

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND VERY
STRONG WINDS HEADED FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...

MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE MUCH ADVERTISED WINTER STORM SYSTEM ABOUT TO HIT SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  STORM WILL TAKE A TRACK SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...CLOSING
OFF NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN A PRIME POSITION TO RECEIVE THE
NECESSARY DYNAMIC LIFT TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO.  ADDITIONALLY...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...CREATING VERY
STRONG WINDS...THAT WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS.  SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20 TO 40
MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  THERE WILL BE HEAVY SNOW...
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

THE AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM INCLUDE NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY...TELLER COUNTY...SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...THE WET
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...THE I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH
OF PUEBLO...THE RATON RIDGE...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS...AND BACA COUNTIES.
IN COMBINATION WITH THE INTENSE DYNAMIC LIFT BEING GENERATED WITH
THE INCOMING STORM...THESE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE ADDED
ENHANCEMENT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT.  TOTALS IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB TO AROUND A FOOT IN SOME LOCATIONS.  THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE ZONE. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL ALSO SEE CONSIDERABLE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW LATER TONIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH (DUE TO THE DRYING EFFECT OF THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS OFF OF THE PALMER DIVIDE).  THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BEGIN ACROSS TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES LATER
THIS EVENING...THEN EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TO THE RATON
RIDGE BY MORNING.  MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY PRECIP EAST
WITH IT...ACROSS EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL END UP
CONSIDERABLY LESS DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OF STRONG NORTH
WINDS...OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE.  THIS WILL BE THE FIRST BIG
WINTER STORM OF SEASON.  CONDITIONS WILL GET HAZARDOUS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST WATCHES/WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED
BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. LW

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

...WINTER STORM WILL BE WEAKENING LATE MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
VISITING THE STATE BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MONDAY NIGHT: LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE DRIVEN THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SO WINTRY WEATHER SHOULD STILL BE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CO PLAINS MON EVE. STRONG NORTH WINDS
OF 20 TO 40 MPH...WITH STRONGER GUSTS...WILL WHIP SNOW ABOUT AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. AREAS FOR THE MOST SIG SNOW
ACCUMULATION SEEM TO BE EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...SO A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES. THE
REST OF THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL...DIMINISHING AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. EXCEPT
FOR THE WIND. FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE STRONG WIND WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. AS FOR TEMPS...SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY FROM W
TO E MONDAY NIGHT...AND IF THE WINDS DECOUPLE AND DIE OFF AS IS
EXPECTED LATE...THEN VERY COLD TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED EARLY TUES
MORN.

TUESDAY: THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON TEMPS FOR TUESDAY...BUT BOTH
AGREE THAT THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER OK AND TX ON
TUES...WITH NORTH FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT
WEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE E PLAINS...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOS SUFFICIENTLY AND OVERCOME
RESIDUAL COLD AIR IN PLACE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY BUT COLD DAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS TO BE A
QUICK SHOT. ETA AND GFS MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE...WITH GFS PAINTING IT AS A GLANCING BLOW. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY ACROSS THE CWA ON WED UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH 50S
AND 60S MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY SIG CHANGES FOR WED WERE TO ADJUST TEMPS
SLIGHTLY AND HOLD OFF FOR ABOUT 12 HRS ON BRINGING IN THE INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. ON THURS ISOLATED PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD TO ALL
OF THE AREA...WITH LOW SCATTERED POPS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THURS CAME IN MUCH COOLER AND
HAD TO ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE US...USHERING IN A WARMING TREND AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
STATE. MOORE//

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 3PM TODAY TO 6 AM MONDAY SAWATCH AND
     MOSQUITO RANGES ABOVE 11000 FEET (ZONES 60-58).
WINTER STORM WARNING 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MONDAY TELLER AND
     NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES (ZONES 81-82-84).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MONDAY SOUTHERN EL
     PASO COUNTY (ZONE 85)
WINTER STORM WARNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON MONDAY SANGRE DE
     CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
     (ZONES 72>75 79-80-87-88).
WINTER STORM WATCH 6 AM MONDAY TO 12 AM TUESDAY EASTERN LAS ANIMAS
     AND BACA COUNTIES (ZONES 94 AND 99).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1227 PM MST SUN OCT 31 2004

COZ058>089-093>099-011400-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7500 FT-CROWLEY COUNTY-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN 7500
AND 11000 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
1227 PM MST SUN OCT 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6
AM MONDAY FOR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES ABOVE 11000 FEET...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
MONDAY FOR TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
MONDAY FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAINS AND THE
ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM AROUND WALSENBURG TO TRINIDAD...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
FOR EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  SNOW WILL BEGIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES ABOVE 11000 FEET.
BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.  FOR THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS AND THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
ACROSS TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO A FOOT...WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PIKES
PEAK.  OF GREAT CONCERN WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL SPREAD
IN BEHIND THE SHARP COLD FRONT.  NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF EXTREMELY
POOR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAINS...AND
THE ADJACENT INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND WALSENBURG TO
TRINIDAD...ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN WILL ALSO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 3 INCHES FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND PUEBLO COUNTIES...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...TO UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS NORTH
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER AND EAST TO THE KANSAS BORDER. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES
THROUGH THE DAY.

SNOW WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM
WALSENBURG SOUTH TO THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER MONDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EVENING. THE COLDEST WEATHER
OF THIS SEASON IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE TEENS.

AFTER THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
STORM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH A RENEWED CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.