Tornadoes and Hail in Colorado, June 4, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
239 AM MDT FRI JUN 04 2004

.SHORT TERM...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY WNW THROUGH TONIGHT AS FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER AREA.  ONCE AGAIN SHOULD SEE SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MID AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO STEEP
LAPSE RATES.  OVER NERN CO MESO-ETA IS SHOWING SOME TYPE OF
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY BY THIS AFTN ROUGHLY FM NERN WELD ACROSS MORGAN
INTO LINCOLN COUNTY WHICH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP BEST CHC OF TSTMS EAST OF A LINE
FROM BRIGGSDALE TO LIMON HOWEVER IF THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP FURTHER
WESTWARD THEN TSTM CHCS COULD BE HIGHER ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDER
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25.  ETA BUFFER DATA SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES IN
THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE BY AFTN WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE SO
COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.  AS FOR HIGHS TODAY TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON GRIDDED DATA WHICH SHOW READINGS IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS.  FLOW NR THE SFC
WL BE NELY OR ELY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DRY AIRMASS ALOFT AND NO
CORRESPONDING COOLING ALOFT WL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY PRECIP TO
DVLP.  CAP MAY BE BROKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN/NR THE HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR TSTMS LOOK DIM IN STBL ATM.
WL REDUCE POPS TO ISOLD THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT.

SUNDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE FIRST REAL HEATWAVE OF THE
SUMMER.  DP LOW PRESSURE TROF WL MOV INTO THE PAC NW...RESULTING IN
DRY SWLY FLOW TO DVLP ACRS OUR AREA.  ARIZONA HAS BEEN BASKING IN
RECORD HEAT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SUCH IS THE SOURCE REGION OF
THE AIRMASS WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE WX FOR NEXT WEEK.  SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES...BUT THAT WL BE ABT IT PRECIP WISE.  TEMPS WL EASILY MAKE IT
INTO THE 90S ACRS THE FNT RANGE AND PLAINS WITH THE WARMEST DAYS
BEING MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUESDAY.  WL RAISE TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY IN
UPCOMING GRIDS/ZFP AND WL KEEP 20 OR LESS POPS EACH AFTN AND
EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RPK/046

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1111 AM MDT FRI JUN 04 2004

COZ030>051-051200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1111 AM MDT FRI JUN 04 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO MAINLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM GREELEY TO LIMON.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SINCE A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO STABLE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER...ALLOWING STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  NO
ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

D-L/TCD