High Wind in California, January 9, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
920 AM PST FRI JAN 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...WV/IR INDICATING
A COLD FRONTAL BAND OFFSHORE WHICH IS POISED TO MOVE INLAND AND
CROSS CENTRAL CA BY THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE P-GRADS (AS
NOTICED BY -7.0 KBFL-KDAG GRAD) AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE BROUGHT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY EARLIER THIS MORNING. FRESNO PIBAL INDICATING
IMPRESSIVE SOUTHEAST WINDS (15 TO 25 KT) JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND
WINDS AT THE SANTA RITA RAWS STATION HAVE BEEN GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AS OFFSHORE SURFACE P-GRADS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME A CONCERN IN THE KERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH VALLEY SO HAVE ISSUED A MORNING UPDATE TO
INCREASE WINDS AND MAX TEMPERATURES AS WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY. IN FACT...BAKERSIFELD HAS AN EXCELLENT CHANCE TO
BREAK IT/S RECORD HIGH FOR JANUARY 9 OF 73 DEG F SET IN 1941. IF
OFFSHORE P-GRADS STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EXPECTED...FRESNO WILL EVEN
HAVE A SHOT AT BREAKING IT/S RECORD MAX OF 70 DEG F SET IN 1953.
COASTAL 12Z RAOBS INDICATING AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS AT LOWER
LEVELS THIS MORNING. THE 12Z MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS AND KEPT LOWER
LEVELS DRY ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. KMUX 88D INDICATING A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN APPROACHING THE BAY AREA...BUT IT IS HAVING DIFFICULTY
PENETRATING THE DRY AIRMASS ONSHORE. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...HAVE DECIDED TO PULL OUT ALL
MENTION OF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIRMASS PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS H5 AND H7 HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH AS A FOUR CORNERS
RIDGE HOLDS IT/S GROUND. UPPER MOISTURE OVERRUNING WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. 12Z MODELS ARE
TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND OMEGAS FROM A S/W THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORCAL ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE CWFA WOULD REMAIN DRY DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME...BUT WILL LEAVE ANY CHANGES BEYOND TODAY FOR THE
AFTERNOON GRID PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE RIDGE SHOULD STAY MAINLY
NORTH...WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. MODELS
SUGGEST WE MAY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH ONE OF THE PASSING SYSTEMS...MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH
THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...FOG COULD BE A CONCERN DURING THE
PERIOD.

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DS/JEB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
500 AM PST FRI JAN 9 2004

CAZ089>099-101400-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
500 AM PST FRI JAN 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.