Strong Wind in California, April 21 to 22, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
915 AM PDT WED APR 21 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...CLOSED LOW
HAS FINALLY MOVED ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW WHILE STRONG 300 MB
JET CONTINUES TO CUT UNDERNEATH IT ACROSS NORTHERN CA. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS JET PRODUCED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN MERCED COUNTY AND MARIPOSA COUNTY EARLY THIS AM.
AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FELL AT TUOLOMNE MEADOWS WHILE OTHER AUTOMATED
GAGES IN THE SIERNEV REPORTED PRECIP AMTS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT DISTURBANCE HAS SINCE WHISKED EASTWARD AND IS NOW OVER THE
ROCKIES. IN ITS WAKE...ONSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS
CA AND CLOUDS HAVE BANKED UP AT THE SOUTH END OF THE SJ VLY AND
ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MTNS THIS
MORNING. WHILE THESE CLOUDS PROBABLY ERODE OUT OF THE SOUTH
VALLEY THIS AFTN...THEY WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU TONIGHT ALONG
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE KERN CO MTNS.  THE WS-ETA DEPICTS
THIS QUITE WELL AND KEEPS 850MB REL HUM CLOSE TO SATURATION IN
THESE AREAS THRU 12Z THU.

THE MODELS FORECAST ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NEXT 12 HRS AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE 300 MB JET...COMBINED WITH A UNILATERAL NW FLOW
BETWEEN 1000-300MB...SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF STRONG TO VERY STRONG
WINDS THRU OUR KERN CO MTNS AND DESERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WS-ETA ALSO FORECASTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE (OMEGA VALUES NR -8
MICROBARS/SEC) OVER THIS REGION LATER TODAY WITH 700 MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 50 KTS BY 00Z THU. CONCURRENTLY...SFC PRS GRADIENTS
BETWEEN SFO AND LAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 MB.
HENCE...WINDS LIKELY TO BREACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  WHILE GRADIENTS GRADUALLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT...STRONG
WINDS MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVER THE KERN CO MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT...SO IDEA TO KEEP WAD IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST 12Z THU SEEMS
APPROPRIATE.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS GUSTED TO 70 OR 80 MPH
IN THE NORMALLY WINDY LOCATIONS BELOW THE PASSES EARLY TONIGHT.
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE SJ VLY THIS AFTN...AND THIS IS COVERED WELL IN CURRENT FCST
PKG. BASED ON HOW DRY THIS SPRING HAS BEEN...WILL ADD AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO SJ VLY ZONES FOR TODAY.

TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLER TODAY THAN TUESDAY...
THANKS TO A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE. BY THURSDAY...GRADIENTS WILL
HAVE TRENDED OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC
BUILDS INTO CA. THIS WILL MAKE THURSDAY A MORE TRANQUIL DAY...
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER...TOO WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FRIDAY WILL
TREND EVEN WARMER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL CA.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE THIS
ISSUANCE AS A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
WESTERN CONUS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE HINTING AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES PINCHING
OFF OVER THE WEEKEND JUST EAST OF THE CREST. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO
PASS...UPPER HEIGHT RECOVERY WOULD BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THUS IMPLYING
RATHER STEADY...BUT STILL SEASONABLY WARM...TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE GFS INDICATES A SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST HEIGHT
RECOVERY LOCALLY OUT AHEAD OF A RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
EPAC BY DAY 6...WILL PLACE LESS WEIGHT ON THIS EVENTUALITY AND
INSTEAD FAVOR THE FORMER SOLUTIONS SINCE GFS DEPICTIONS OF SUCH
BAROCLINICITY AT THESE LATITUDES LATELY HAVE RARELY COME TO
PASS...AND THIS IDEA REPRESENTS QUITE A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY/S RUN.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 400 AM THURSDAY.

&&

DURFEE/BURGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
500 AM PDT WED APR 21 2004

CAZ089>094-096-097-221200-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
500 AM PDT WED APR 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ON...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ095-098-099-221200-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
500 AM PDT WED APR 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE
INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT. REFER TO THE LATEST WEATHER
MESSAGE / WWUS76 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
KERN COUNTY DESERT. REFER TO THE LATEST WEATHER MESSAGE / WWUS76
KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

AFTER 4 AM THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.