Hail in Arkansas, November 23, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1000 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE ON THE WAY THIS MORNING...
RAINFALL HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS THE CWA BUT
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO RETURN LATER ON. RUC20 CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF BRINGING THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE
DAY...STARTING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO ADJUST THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

PRECIP STILL LIKELY TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
TRICKY BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ALL OVER FORECAST PARAMETERS IN PLACE.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241100-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL-ARKANSAS-JEFFERSON-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-WOODRUFF-
1030 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF ARKANSAS...AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

A WARM FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALSO...A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS LINE ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH THIS.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS
ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE REQUIRED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS AND MOST OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL HAVE A FREEZE THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

38

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
139 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             NORMAN                  34.46N 93.68W
11/23/2004  1.00 INCH        MONTGOMERY         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0110 PM     HAIL             MOUNT IDA               34.55N 93.63W
11/23/2004  1.00 INCH        MONTGOMERY         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0120 PM     HAIL             3 E MOUNT IDA           34.55N 93.58W
11/23/2004  1.75 INCH        MONTGOMERY         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

46