Damaging Wind in Arkansas, May 13, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004
.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL BE ON THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST...TRIGGERING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE...BUT SOMEWHAT TEMPERED ON ACCOUNT OF CLOUD
DEBRIS MOVING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE NE TEXAS COMPLEX. GFS NUMBERS
PREFERRED ON THEIR PATTERN OF ENDING PRECIPITATION EARLY ON SATURDAY
RATHER THAN DRAGGING POPS THROUGH ALL FOUR PERIODS BY THE FWC
NUMBERS. SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR MOST OF THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING
EXCEPT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN BORDER BY TUESDAY...SO INCLUDED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ONLY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOLLOWED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS CLOSELY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    65  73  53  75 /  80  60  10  10
HARRISON AR       56  62  45  72 /  80  40  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  73  53  76 /  80  60  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  74  55  77 /  80  70  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  63  45  72 /  80  40  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  76  56  78 /  80  70  20  10
SEARCY AR         65  70  51  75 /  80  60  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      65  72  52  75 /  80  50  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  67  49  74 /  80  50  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
645 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATER TONIGHT...AS THE
FRONT MOVES CLOSER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS UP OUT OF
LOUISIANA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ARKANSAS
FOR TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THE STORMS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS ON
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT ARKANSAS EARLY ON SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

57