Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, June 2, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM JAY TO TULSA TO BRISTOW
AND THEN NORTHWEST TO STILLWATER. LINE OF CUMULUS SOUTH OF THE
OFFICE HERE DEPICTS THE BOUNDARY QUITE WELL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
RESIDES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT VERY WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS PRESENT TO THE SOUTH.

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BUT THESE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME AND WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
OF MORE CONCERN IS THE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. IT APPEARS THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS
CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANY STORMS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE A GOOD BET TO BE SEVERE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY.

A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. THE COMPLEX WILL THEN TRACK
EAST SOUTHEAST AND MAY CLIP PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

RAISED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS AND ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES SOME BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS
SOME FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPDATE COMING SHORTLY.

FORECAST ID= 05

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SEVERAL WEAK
BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. ONE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA FROM NEAR PAWNEE TO MIAMI...WHILE A BETTER DEFINE BOUNDARY
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM NEAR POTEAU TO MCALESTER.
BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

LATER TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA VERY LATE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS COMPLEX.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY...WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OCCASIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION