Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 2, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
332 PM CDT WED JUN  2 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE PANHANDLES AS
SURFACE HEATING IS OVERCOMING THE MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER NEAR 700MB.
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HELICITY SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INCEASING THE AREAL
COVERAGE. CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEEPEN
THE MOIST LAYER TOMORROW...HOWEVER THE WARM LAYER MAY BE HARDER TO
OVERCOME SO COVERAGE COULD BE LESS. FRIDAY MAY SEE SOME DRYER AIR
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS A WIND
SHIFT OCCURING DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AND SERVES AS A
LINE OF CONVERGENCE NEEDED TO INTIATE CONVECTION. MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BUT
WARM AIR ALOFT PREVENTS MENTIONING ANY POPS AT THIS TIME.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO     60  82  61  89 /  60  20  40  20
BEAVER       58  84  58  89 /  30  10  20  20
BOISE CITY   53  84  55  93 /  50  20  40  20
BORGER       61  83  61  92 /  50  10  30  20
BOYS RANCH   59  83  61  91 /  60  20  40  20
CANYON       60  83  62  90 /  60  20  40  20
CLARENDON    63  83  65  90 /  60  10  30  20
DALHART      56  85  58  91 /  50  20  40  20
GUYMON       56  84  57  91 /  40  10  30  20
HEREFORD     60  85  62  91 /  60  20  40  20
LIPSCOMB     59  85  60  88 /  40  10  20  20
PAMPA        61  82  61  90 /  60  10  30  20
SHAMROCK     63  84  65  88 /  60  10  30  20
WELLINGTON   65  84  67  88 /  70  10  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT TIL 03Z TXZ 01>20.
OK...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT TIL 03Z OKZ 01>03.

&&

10/11

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-031100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM...
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL OR LARGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER