Damaging Winds in Arkansas, December 6, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

.UPDATE...STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS WRN AR AND LA THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUING
TREND OF INCREASING DYNAMICS AS THE SYSTEM EDGES EWD...MAINTAINING
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH IN
EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM. CAPE TO INCREASE WITH TIME AND INTENSE WIND
SHEAR PERSISTS. SIGNIFICANT STORM INFLOW WILL ENHANCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE LINE TONIGHT.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE TRIGGERING AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT
HEADS RAPIDLY EAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN EARLIER MODELS HAD PREDICTED AT THIS POINT AND NOW THE MODELS
EXPECT THE SURFACE REFLECTION (SURFACE LOW) TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS FROM EASTERN OK INTO CENTRAL IL. THE TIGHTLY
PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
BRUSH THE DELTA EAST TO THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE LATER TONIGHT AND WE
HAVE HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EXPECTATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 35 MPH. WE ALSO HAVE ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR AREAS BASICALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS AND THIS WILL FALL
UPON GROUND THAT IS SATURATED AND PRONE TO LOTS OF STANDING WATER
ALREADY. IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI MAY STAY
LARGELY DRY UNTIL SOMETIME NEAR THE DAWN HOURS WITH LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

SPEAKING OF SEVERE WEATHER...WE STILL ARE DIAGNOSING A RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA...SOUTHEAST AR AND
NORTHWEST MS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE GREATEST
IN THESE AREAS BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 TO 4 AM. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS BUILDING BACK IN. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS
LIKE THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE SHAPE AND APPROACH WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH WITH ISENTROPICLY
LIFTED MOISTURE PROMPTING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND EVENTUALLY
PRECIP...BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT
MSZ018-019-025>038-040>044-047>049-053-054-059>061-071030.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ARZ074-075.

&&

50/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
859 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
072248-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
859 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ  TRACE PARKWAY.

A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF TEXAS THIS
EVENING WILL CROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A NARROW ZONE
OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED INCREASE AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE MOVING
EAST FROM EAST TEXAS AND WEST ARKANSAS. AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
SPREAD EAST...THE SQUALL LINE WILL SURGE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AS
BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE MOVE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM...AND THEN INTO
EAST MISSISSIPPI AROUND SUNRISE. ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM
AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES  HOWEVER THIS RISK
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
MONTICELLO TO MERIDIAN AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 AM AND THEN
EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA ENTIRELY BY
AROUND NOON TUESDAY.

...FLOODING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE EARLY TUESDAY. AS RAIN FALLS ON SATURATED
GROUND...PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN TO FALL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
POSSIBLY SEEING 3 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO THE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE ARK-LA-MISS TONIGHT AS THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND LOCALLY
ROUGH CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS... AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS REQUESTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE NATCHEZ  TRACE. OTHERWISE... ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.